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000 FXUS61 KCLE 240244 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 944 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... ONLY PRECIP LEFT OVER THE AREA IS OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THIS WILL ALSO BE GONE SHORTLY. WILL LEAVE IN A MENTION OF SPRINKLES FAR EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT NO LONGER EXPECTING MEASURABLE PRECIP. FURTHER WEST...CLEARING CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA. THIS CLEARING SHOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING MUCH PROGRESS OVERNIGHT GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE VALUES IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO SEE SOME FOG THIS EVENING AND WILL ADD TO THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAY END UP USING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE FAR WEST TO COVER ANY POCKETS OF CLEARING THAT DO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. IF MUCH CLEARING DOES OCCUR...FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY REDEVELOP TO FILL IN THE HOLES. TEMPS FROM EARLIER FORECAST LOOK FINE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... GET A BREAK FROM THE PRECIP TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE REBOUNDS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE RAIN THAN YDY. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS WED...BUT WITHOUT ANY TIMING. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THURSDAY WITH LARGE UPPER LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A SURGE OF COLD AIR. NAM A LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS GIVE IN EXCESS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN FOR THANKSGIVING BUT SINCE THIS IS A CHANGE FROM YDY MODEL RUN I JUST WENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INSTEAD OF LIKELY. RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW BY THURSDAY EVENING AS ALL MODELS BRING 850 TEMPS IN THE MINUS 4C TO MINUS 6C RANGE. BRRRRRR. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...BUT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH/TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES. H8 TEMPS DROP TO -5 TO -8 ACROSS LAKE ERIE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND AN UPPER LOW OVER WRN PA. TRENDED POPS HIGHER INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED...WITH CRITICAL THICKNESSES ALSO SUPPORTING PRECIP MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WILL PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATION IN THE SNOWBELT AREAS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AS THE H8 FLOW TURNS ANTICYCLONIC...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH BY THEN TO ALLOW FOR RAIN SHOWERS. MAINTAINED THE TREND OF GOING BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THRU AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH STILL CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THE TROUGHS MOVE OUT SHOWERS SHOULD END BY AROUND 04Z BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR...ESPECIALLY CEILINGS...LATER TONIGHT. WESTERN AREAS WILL ALSO SEE IFR VISIBILITIES DEVELOP. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOW IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE TUESDAY MORNING...THEN TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... NON-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN MAINLY NON VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR SATURDAY. && .MARINE... LAKE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED ON WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAIN THAT LEVEL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FURTHER INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEED TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY SO WILL LIKELY NEED GALE WARNINGS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME DECREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD BRING WINDS AND WAVES BACK DOWN BELOW GALES ON SATURDAY BUT WILL NEED TO DOWNGRADE TO SMALL CRAFT AGAIN. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJB NEAR TERM...KUBINA SHORT TERM...DJB LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...RANDEL MARINE...LOMBARDY
