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000 FXUS61 KCLE 232321 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 621 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... WEAK LOW OVER APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING TAKING THE SCATTERED SHOWER OVER THE AREA WITH IT. ACTUALLY RADAR LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN THE GROUND TRUTH. MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING .01 INCHES OR LESS PER HOUR. SO WILL JUST KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... GET A BREAK FROM THE PRECIP TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE REBOUNDS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE RAIN THAN YDY. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS WED...BUT WITHOUT ANY TIMING. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THURSDAY WITH LARGE UPPER LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A SURGE OF COLD AIR. NAM A LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS GIVE IN EXCESS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN FOR THANKSGIVING BUT SINCE THIS IS A CHANGE FROM YDY MODEL RUN I JUST WENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INSTEAD OF LIKELY. RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW BY THURSDAY EVENING AS ALL MODELS BRING 850 TEMPS IN THE MINUS 4C TO MINUS 6C RANGE. BRRRRRR. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...BUT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH/TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES. H8 TEMPS DROP TO -5 TO -8 ACROSS LAKE ERIE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND AN UPPER LOW OVER WRN PA. TRENDED POPS HIGHER INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED...WITH CRITICAL THICKNESSES ALSO SUPPORTING PRECIP MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WILL PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATION IN THE SNOWBELT AREAS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AS THE H8 FLOW TURNS ANTICYCLONIC...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH BY THEN TO ALLOW FOR RAIN SHOWERS. MAINTAINED THE TREND OF GOING BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THRU AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH STILL CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THE TROUGHS MOVE OUT SHOWERS SHOULD END BY AROUND 04Z BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR...ESPECIALLY CEILINGS...LATER TONIGHT. WESTERN AREAS WILL ALSO SEE IFR VISIBILITIES DEVELOP. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOW IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE TUESDAY MORNING...THEN TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... NON-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN MAINLY NON VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR SATURDAY. && .MARINE... LAKE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED ON WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAIN THAT LEVEL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FURTHER INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEED TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY SO WILL LIKELY NEED GALE WARNINGS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME DECREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD BRING WINDS AND WAVES BACK DOWN BELOW GALES ON SATURDAY BUT WILL NEED TO DOWNGRADE TO SMALL CRAFT AGAIN. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJB NEAR TERM...DJB SHORT TERM...DJB LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...RANDEL MARINE...LOMBARDY
