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000 FXUS61 KCLE 242114 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 414 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...DRAGGING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... RELATIVELY QUIET THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALMOST NO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE IL/IN BORDER. DON`T EXPECT MUCH RAIN ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WITH STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT BUMPED UP POPS IN NW OHIO SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING TO REFLECT A POSSIBLE SHOWER THREAT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT MAIN PRECIP AREA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE CWA. EXPECT HEAVIEST RAIN AREA TO MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AND BROKEN THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW AS THE OCCLUSION WRAPS UP FURTHER AROUND THE LOW. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE MID 40S AND STEADY OUT AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT KICKS IN. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPPER LOW THURSDAY MORNING DRIVING A SECONDARY FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO REMAIN AS RAIN UNTIL AFTER SUNSET ON THURSDAY...AS TEMPS DON`T COOL SUFFICIENTLY UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE COLD POOL BEHIND THE FRONT - LATEST RUNS HAVE H8 TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT AROUND -6. FETCH FOR LAKE EFFECT TURNS ONSHORE ON FRIDAY...AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT ALL PRECIP IN THE AREA SHOULD BE LAKE DRIVEN. TOO FAR OUT FOR ACCUM WORDING...BUT WITH THE WARM GROUND AND HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING...EXPECT ONLY MODEST ACCUMULATING SNOWS PRIMARILY AT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LONG TERM BEGINS SATURDAY 12Z WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE WEST. EARLY HOWEVER CAN SEE A CHANCE OF LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS THE SNOW BELT AND PARTICULARLY NWRN PA IN THE NW FLOW AND THE LAST OF THE RETREATING COLD AIR. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES WILL EXTEND NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST BY EVENING ALLOWING A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION. WITH THE GENERAL WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS STILL FAIRLY SIMILAR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES OR ONTARIO WITH THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKES. HPC HAS THE LOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH IN SRN LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS HAVE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL NEED TO BRING CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD IT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES MORE SIGNIFICANT INTO TUESDAY. WILL SIDE WITH THE COOLER GFS AND ALLOW FOR A CHANCE POP FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX MONDAY NIGHT AND BACK TO A RAIN CHANCE TUESDAY. FOLLOWED A MIX OF HPC AND GFS MOS TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NOT AN EASY AVIATION FORECAST TODAY WITH CONDITIONS BETWEEN CLEAR AND LIFR IN OR NEAR THE AREA. AT THIS TIME SHALLOW MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH CIGS MOSTLY BELOW 1 KFT WITH AREAS OF IFR/MVFR FOG LINGERING. THIS DECK HAS STARTED TO BREAK AND REVEAL A BKN-OVC DECK AROUND 4KFT. WENT WITH THE BELIEF THAT THIS LOWER DECK COULD CONTINUE TO BREAK FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE PATCHY CIGS AOB 1KFT LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD DECK TO THICKEN/REDEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS MAINLY IFR/LIFR. WENT WITH FOG REDEVELOPING AGAIN BUT NOT AS THICK AS THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. TOWARD MORNING A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING WEST. OUTLOOK... PROLONGED PERIODS OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. VFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY TO RETURN FOR SATURDAY. && .MARINE... STILL LOOKING AT GALE POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY BUT IT APPEARS MODELS ARE STARTING TO TREND BACK DOWN A BIT AND GO JUST BELOW GALES. HOWEVER...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...I AM GOING TO STILL MENTION THE GALE POTENTIAL. I THINK IF WE DO REACH GALE FORCE WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING RATHER QUICKLY. IN THE MEAN TIME...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. BEING AN OFFSHORE FLOW...I ANTICIPATE WAVES WILL BUILD TO 4 FEET JUST OUTSIDE THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND THEREFORE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ASTIFAN NEAR TERM...ASTIFAN SHORT TERM...ASTIFAN LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...TK MARINE...LOMBARDY
