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000
FXUS63 KLOT 240440
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1040 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.DISCUSSION...
1035 PM CST
QUICK LATE EVENING UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR DENSE FOG THAT HAS
ALREADY STARED TO FORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SATELLITE REVEALS
THAT LOW STRATUS THAT COVERED MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING HAS
ERODED TO THE NORTH...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR. HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE NEAR DAYBREAK AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...BUT FOG SHOULD ALREADY BE WELL ESTABLISHED
AT THAT POINT. UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.
BOXELL
&&
.AVIATION...
0600 UTC TAFS...THE LOW CEILINGS SEEM TO BE ERODING TOWARDS THE
NORTH. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS LEFT THIS MORNING.
A WARM FRONT MAY BE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS WARM
AIR LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL SLOPE MAY BE ERODING THE
LOW CLOUDS. THE INVERSION SEEN ON ACARS SOUNDINGS WILL TRAP THE
MOISTURE NEAR THE GROUND. THE AIR WILL COOL BY RADIATION AND FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WE WILL ADJUST THE TAFS FOR FOG. THE
VISIBILITY MAY FALL TO 1 TO 2 MILES OR LESS IN THE FOG. ROCKFORD
AND CHICAGO MAY NOT HAVE CLEAR SKIES UNTIL EARLY MORNING. THE FOG
MAY NOT BECOME THICKER AT THOSE LOCATIONS UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE IFR CONDITIONS EITHER BY THE CLOUDS OR THE FOG AT
MOST OF THE AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO IOWA
WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT BY TUESDAY EVENING. WE WILL FORECAST RAIN
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
1147 AM CST
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN MOVE TO SOUTHEAST IOWA BY
TUESDAY EVENING...AND TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS A SURGE
OF COLD AIR DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL INDUCE A DEEPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST. AS THIS LOW INTENSIFIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS MEANS THAT
OUR EXTENDED PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OF THE PAST DAYS
WILL BE COMING TO AN END. AS COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KTS.
MERZLOCK
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 10
AM TUESDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
