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000 FXUS63 KMQT 241738 AAB AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1237 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 410 AM EST/ .TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO PERSIST OVER THE MAJORITY OF UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. A QUICK LOOK AT VISIBILITIES AROUND UPPER MICHIGAN THOUGH SHOWS CONDITIONS ARE AS BAD AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT WITH DRYING ALOFT...LIKELY AIDING DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT. LOWERED HIGHS A BIT TODAY TOO WITH DRIZZLE EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY. .WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL TRACK TO TVC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM ALREADY WITH LIGHTNING NOTED ON LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LOW CENTER...LIKELY AIDED BY DEW POINTS AROUND 50. THE LOW STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS US...HOWEVER LACK OF COLD AIR WILL PRECLUDE ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM FALLING. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE THERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST SREF FIELDS AGREE THAT SNOW WILL HOLD OFF THERE UNTIL AROUND 06Z THURSDAY. OPTED FOR AN ALL RAIN FORECAST FOR AREAS EAST OF LINE FROM MQT TO IMT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THEN MIXED IN SNOW THEREAFTER AS CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES ARE REALIZED CWA WIDE BY 03Z FRIDAY. FOR THE MOST PART MAINTAINED GOING FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS BUT ADJUSTED HIGHERS POPS ON THURSDAY TO DEFORMATION AREA AS THE SFC LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN. SOME CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS INITIAL S/W DEPARTS OUT OF ILLINOIS AND A SECOND S/W DIGS IN BEHIND IT. MODELS HINT AT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TRANSITION TIME. THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN NEARLY DRY...SOMETHING THE LATEST ECMWF...00Z/24...NOW SHOWS TO AN EXTENT. OPTED TO TREND POPS LOWER OVER EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. THINK THIS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED A BIT MORE BY LATER SHIFTS. .THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS 850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK COLDER THAN YESTERDAY/S MODEL RUNS...THOUGH BE IT MARGINAL. DEEP MOISTURE EXITS QUICKLY THOUGH SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ACCUMULATION. SURFACE/MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ENDING ANY ONGOING LES. && .AVIATION /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/... NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED AT KCMX/KSAW THRU THE AFTN AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE LOW-LEVELS. SO...MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST AT KCMX. AT KSAW...UPSLOPING S TO SE WIND MAY WORK TO KEEP CIGS FROM RISING ABOVE IFR. HOWEVER...WITH RECENT INDICATIONS OF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR...WILL TREND CIGS UP TO MVFR THIS AFTN. MVFR VIS IN FOG AT KSAW SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTN...BUT A RETURN TO MVFR VIS IS LIKELY THIS EVENING AT BOTH KSAW AND KCMX. WITH LOW PRES MOVING NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...-RA SHOULD REACH KSAW LATE IN THE NIGHT...RESULTING IN CONDITIONS LOWERING TO LIFR. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THRU WED MORNING. WITH KCMX ON THE EDGE OF SYSTEM...INTERMITTENT -RA MAY DEVELOP THERE WED MORNING WITH CONDITIONS FALLING TO IFR. && .MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/... EXPECT HI PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED AS LO PRES ORGANIZING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS NE TO NEAR THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB 20 KTS INTO WED BEFORE INCREASING LATER IN THE DAY. THIS LO WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE WITH A DEEPER LO PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRI. EXPECT A PERIOD OF N WINDS TO 30 KTS ON THU WITH SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON THE NW FLANK OF THE LO. LOOK FOR A HI PRES RIDGE TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON LATE FRI AND SAT. AS THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E AND THIS RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE W...WINDS WILL DECREASE STEADILY ON FRI/SAT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...PEARSON AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KC
