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000 FXUS63 KMQT 240528 AAB AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1228 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009 UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS... /ISSUED AT 400 PM EST/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS/SRN CANADA. IN THE SRN BRANCH...A TROF WAS SHIFTING E OF THE ROCKIES AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WAS ALONG THE E COAST. IN THE SW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A TROF WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WAS LIFTING THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS NRN AND ERN MN INTO NW WI AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. SHRA OCCASIONALLY AFFECTED THE FAR WRN FCST AREA IN THE KIWD VCNTY EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE OTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS ALSO GENERATING SOME -SHRA...BUT WITH MUCH LESS COVERAGE. OTHER THAN THE EARLY SHRA AROUND KIWD...THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA HAS BEEN DRY TODAY... BUT FOG WAS SLOW TO DISSIPATE. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUE)... /ISSUED AT 400 PM EST/ WEAKENING MIDLEVEL TROF WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT. EVEN PRIOR TO ITS EXIT...PCPN IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN AS DRIER AIR NOTED ON 12Z KGRB SOUNDING IS MOVING NNW OVER THE FCST AREA. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE FAR W AS TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN HAS RECENTLY BEGAN TO GENERATE A NARROW BAND OF -SHRA/SPRINKLES SWD INTO SE MN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR -SHRA PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST TONIGHT OVER WRN UPPER MI AS PCPN SHOULD ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR. THIS INFLUX OF DRIER AIR HAS BEEN NOTED NICELY BY SHARP SE EDGE TO PCPN LIFTING N OVER MN/NW WI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...STAGE WILL AGAIN BE SET FOR FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS VERY HIGH. FOG WILL BE LEAST LIKELY/LEAST DENSE IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE DOWNSLOPING UNDER LIGHT S TO SE WINDS WHICH INCLUDES MAINLY THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. FOG SHOULD BE MOST DENSE ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI WHERE LIGHT WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPING. IT WILL BE ANOTHER NIGHT OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH MINS AOA NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS WAS THE CASE TODAY...EXPECT FOG TO BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE TUE MORNING. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WRN KS. DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY S OF UPPER MI THRU TUE AFTN. SFC TROF EXTENDING N FROM DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER MO/IA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUE OVER MN...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY SHRA IN THE VCNTY OF TROF TO THE W OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRESENCE OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE FAR W TUE AFTN. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)... UPPER PATTERN STARTS OUT STILL LOOKING MILD...WITH A WESTERLY SPLIT FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE CONUS. INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVR THE CNTRL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPR GREAT LAKES ON TUE NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIKELY POPS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH LEAD WAVE AND ENHANCEMENT PROVIDED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN LFQ OF JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. 1000-500MB/1000-850MB CRITICAL THICKNESSES IN THE VCNTY OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO ONLY JUSTIFY RAIN AS PTYPE THROUGH WED. ADVECTION OF DWPNTS IN THE UPR 30S/AROUND 40F WELL ABOVE CURRENT 2 INCH GROUND TEMPS IN THE LWR 30S ALONG WITH PERSISTENT SE LOW-LEVEL WINDS...AS WELL AS JUST A PERSISTENCE FCST...RESULTS IN MORE FOG TUE NIGHT INTO WED... ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF CNTRL CWA. SECOND SHORTWAVE DIGGING IN FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DEEPENING OVR THE UPR GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU HELPS DRAW SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR IN FM CNTRL CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH H85 AND DEEP MOISTURE LEADS TO CONTINUING LIKELY POPS WED NIGHT INTO THU. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS MARGINAL FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW WED NIGHT BUT DO CONTINUE TO LOWER ON THANKSGIVING. SOUNDINGS OFF GFS IN THE FAR WRN CWA INDICATE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER IS ONLY IN THE LOWEST 50 MB WITH DEEP MOISTURE INTERSECTING THE -10C TO -15C ISOTHERMS...SO MAJORITY OF PCPN IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES INDICATE WARMER AIR PERSISTS THROUGH ALL OF THU OVR THE CNTRL AND EAST...SO PTYPE THROUGH THU SHOULD STAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AWAY FM THE WESTERN CWA. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AMOUNTS TO EXCEED ONE-HALF INCH OVR THE SOUTH AND EAST CWA LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT DUE TO DEVELOPING DEFORMATION AREA ON NORTH SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW. GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET/CANADIAN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS POSSIBILITY. NE FLOW AND DWPNTS WELL INTO THE 30S ON WED EVENING SHOULD INITIALLY RESULT IN FOG IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF NW CWA LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO THU MORNING. SETUP MAY FAVOR DENSE FOG. OVERALL...THE FOG AND MIX OF LGT RAIN AND SNOW MAY LEAD TO TRICKY TRAVEL LATE ON WED INTO THU MORNING. ON THE FLIP SIDE...TEMPS REMAINING WARM IN THE BLYR ALSO CUTS DOWN ON SNOW AMOUNTS OVR THE WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SYSTEM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DUE TO THE SLOPPY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG. DIFFERENCES ARISE IN HOW DEEP TROUGH BECOMES OVR THE GREAT LAKES INTO FRIDAY. ESSENTIALLY...OPERATIONAL GFS IS STRONGEST AND HAS MUCH COLDER AIR INTO FRIDAY WITH H85 TEMPS BLO -8C. ABOUT HALF OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE STRONGER TROUGH...WHILE THE OTHER HALF OF THE MEMBERS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND CANADIAN/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE TROUGH DEPARTING EARLY AND MUCH WARMER H85 TEMPS ONLY AROUND -2C ON FRI. LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED COLDER THOUGH. IF USING THE UKMET TO BREAK THE TIE...IT TOO IS SIMILAR TO ECMWF AND CANADIAN BY BUILDING A RIDGE FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPR LAKES ON FRIDAY. IN GENERAL...KEPT THEME OF PREV FCST WITH LOW CHANCE POPS IN NW FLOW AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR OVR THE ERN CWA. HPC PREFERRED ECMWF/CANADIAN AND ENSEMBLES POINT TO RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY WEEKEND...BUT QUICK FLOW ALLOWS TROUGH TO ALREADY PUSH INTO THE UPR LAKES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF WAS QUICKER WITH ARRIVAL OF TROUGH...BUT LATEST GFS/CANADIAN HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD PCPN ON SUN. COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLES...00Z ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICK AND DEEP WITH ITS SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS AS EARLY AS SUN. INTERESTING THAT 12Z ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG/WIDESPREAD WITH QPF. USED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUN UNTIL TRENDS BECOME MORE CLEAR. ALSO USED SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH/UNSETTLED WEATHER AFFECTS UPR LAKES. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO TRY TO TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/... LOOK FOR MORE FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT KCMX/KSAW UNDER LIGHT WINDS/NOCTURNAL COOLING. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW BY 10Z UNDER LIGHT UPSLOPING SSE WINDS. SSE WINDS AT KCMX WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR THICK FOG SO ONLY HAVE CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR THERE LATE TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO TODAY...CIG/VIS IMPROVEMENT TUE MORNING WILL BE VERY SLOW AT BOTH TAF SITES. EVENTUALLY EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE AND CIGS TO RAISE TO MVFR BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AGAIN BY LATE TUE EVENING. && .MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/... LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20KT SHOULD BE THE RULE THRU TUE NIGHT UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRES OVER SE CANADA AND ORGANIZING LOW PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU THU AND THEN REDEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND FRI...N WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE WED AND THU. A PERIOD OF 20-30KT N WINDS APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED NIGHT INTO FRI ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE W THU NIGHT. A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL ARRIVE FRI NIGHT AND SAT...BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...JV MARINE...ROLFSON
