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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
000 FGUS73 KDVN 292200 ESFDVN IAC011-019-031-045-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113- 115-139-163-177-183-ILC011-015-067-071-073-085-109-131-155-161-177- 187-195-MOC045-199-192200- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 355 PM CST FRI JAN 29 2010 ...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1... THIS SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE QUAD CITIES HYDROLOGIC SERVICES AREA...WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES FROM BELOW GUTTENBERG LD10 IOWA TO BELOW GREGORY LANDING MISSOURI. THE OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TIME PERIOD FROM FEBRUARY THROUGH THE END OF APRIL. THIS OUTLOOK GIVES THE CHANCES FOR FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT AND NORMAL SPRING THAWING CONDITIONS. THESE VALUES DO NOT REFLECT THE FLOODING POTENTIAL DUE TO ICE JAMS. THE OUTLOOK ASSUMES NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE OUTLOOK TIME PERIOD. IF TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE NOT NEAR NORMAL...THEN THE ACTUAL RISK OF FLOODING MAY DIFFER FROM WHAT THE OUTLOOK CURRENTLY INDICATES. ...THERE IS A GREATER THAN NORMAL RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI... BASED ON THE CONDITIONS AT THE TIME OF THIS OUTLOOK...THE HIGH SOIL MOISTURE AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL STREAM LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE WINTER SUGGEST AN ENHANCED RISK OF MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS SPRING. ...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE... VALID 2/1/2010 - 5/2/2010 -----------FLOOD STAGE----------- DEPARTURE LOCATION MINOR MODERATE MAJOR FROM NORMAL STG PCT STG PCT STG PCT OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DUBUQUE LD11 16 54% 17.0 41% 20.5 14% 10% GREATER DUBUQUE 17 67% 18.0 49% 21.5 18% 19% GREATER BELLEVUE LD12 17 44% 18.0 29% 20.0 13% NEAR NORMAL FULTON LD13 16 60% 18.0 29% 20.0 18% 16% GREATER CAMANCHE 17 47% 18.5 27% 20.5 13% 6% GREATER LECLAIRE LD14 11 52% 12.0 34% 13.5 18% 8% GREATER ROCK ISLAND LD15 15 72% 16.0 59% 18.0 26% 22% GREATER ILL. CITY LD16 15 72% 16.0 63% 18.0 36% 21% GREATER MUSCATINE 16 72% 18.0 50% 20.0 21% 22% GREATER NEW BOSTON LD17 15 82% 16.5 72% 18.5 42% 26% GREATER KEITHSBURG 14 80% 15.5 57% 17.0 36% 24% GREATER GLADSTONE LD18 10 80% 12.0 57% 14.0 29% 26% GREATER BURLINGTON 15 78% 16.5 57% 18.0 34% 27% GREATER KEOKUK LD19 16 39% 17.5 24% 19.0 18% 19% GREATER GREGORY LANDING 15 83% 18.0 54% 25.0 1% 32% GREATER ...IOWA RIVERS... MAQUOKETA RIVER MANCHESTER HWY 20 14 23% 17.0 9% 20.0 --- 12% GREATER MAQUOKETA 24 41% 26.0 23% 28.5 14% 20% GREATER WAPSIPINICON RIVER INDEPENDENCE 12 6% 13.0 3% 15.0 3% NEAR NORMAL ANAMOSA SHAW RD 14 34% 15.5 29% 19.0 4% 14% GREATER DE WITT 11 90% 11.5 85% 12.5 42% 29% GREATER CEDAR RIVER VINTON 15 26% 18.0 8% 19.0 4% 21% GREATER CEDAR RAPIDS 12 50% 14.0 29% 16.0 16% 33% GREATER CONESVILLE 13 96% 15.0 49% 16.5 14% 49% GREATER IOWA RIVER MARENGO 14 98% 15.5 98% 18.5 16% 36% GREATER IOWA CITY 22 18% 23.0 11% 25.0 6% 14% GREATER LONE TREE 15 31% 16.5 16% 18.0 9% 19% GREATER COLUMBUS JCT 19 90% 22.0 37% 23.0 29% 44% GREATER WAPELLO 20 98% 22.0 80% 25.0 29% 45% GREATER ENGLISH RIVER KALONA 14 57% 16.0 24% 18.0 13% 23% GREATER NORTH SKUNK RIVER SIGOURNEY 16 67% 18.0 36% 21.0 4% 26% GREATER SKUNK RIVER AUGUSTA 15 52% 17.0 37% 20.0 11% 22% GREATER DES MOINES RIVER KEOSAUQUA 22 9% 25.0 4% 27.0 1% NEAR NORMAL ST FRANCISVILLE 18 78% 22.0 16% 25.0 4% 39% GREATER ...ILLINOIS RIVERS... PECATONICA RIVER FREEPORT 13 59% 14.0 27% 16.0 1% 23% GREATER ROCK RIVER COMO 10 47% 11.0 27% 12.0 11% 30% GREATER JOSLIN 12 93% 14.0 68% 16.5 36% 40% GREATER MOLINE 12 80% 13.0 65% 14.0 42% 31% GREATER GREEN RIVER GENESEO 15 23% 16.5 11% 18.0 3% 7% GREATER LA MOINE RIVER COLMAR 20 67% 22.0 29% 24.0 3% 9% GREATER ...MISSOURI RIVERS... FOX RIVER WAYLAND 15 14% 18.0 3% 20.0 --- NEAR NORMAL THE FOLLOWING TABLES ARE THE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS FOR RIVER BASINS IN IOWA...ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THIS OUTLOOK IS DIVIDED INTO TWO PARTS...ONE FOR HIGH WATER...AND ONE FOR LOW WATER. THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. IN TABLE 2 BELOW FOR HIGH WATER...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...MISSISSIPPI RIVER LOCK AND DAM 15 AT ROCK ISLAND HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 15 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE STAGE REACHING 20.5 FEET. ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID 2/1/2010 - 5/2/2010 LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% MISSISSIPPI RIVER DUBUQUE LD11 16 13.4 14.2 15.0 15.8 16.4 17.2 18.5 19.8 22.2 DUBUQUE 17 14.8 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.0 18.8 20.0 21.2 23.6 BELLEVUE LD12 17 12.4 14.2 15.0 15.9 16.7 17.2 17.9 18.7 20.3 FULTON LD13 16 12.5 14.5 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.2 18.1 19.3 21.5 CAMANCHE 17 13.4 14.9 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.3 18.2 19.4 21.7 LECLAIRE LD14 11 8.9 9.9 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.3 13.3 15.2 ROCK ISLAND LD15 15 12.4 14.3 15.5 16.0 16.5 16.8 17.6 18.7 20.5 ILL. CITY LD16 15 12.4 14.3 15.8 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.5 19.7 21.7 MUSCATINE 16 13.6 15.3 16.8 17.6 18.2 18.6 19.3 20.4 22.4 NEW BOSTON LD17 15 13.6 15.5 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.3 20.4 22.1 KEITHSBURG 14 12.8 14.1 14.8 15.3 16.2 16.5 17.5 18.2 20.0 GLADSTONE LD18 10 8.9 10.3 11.0 11.6 12.6 12.9 14.0 14.9 17.1 BURLINGTON 15 13.8 15.0 15.6 16.2 17.0 17.3 18.2 19.0 21.2 KEOKUK LD19 16 11.0 12.2 13.3 14.1 15.3 16.0 17.3 18.3 20.6 GREGORY LANDING 15 14.2 15.8 16.5 17.0 18.2 19.0 20.1 21.2 23.2 MAQUOKETA RIVER MANCHESTER HWY 20 14 8.3 8.9 9.4 10.6 11.2 12.4 13.5 14.8 17.2 MAQUOKETA 24 20.0 20.8 21.5 21.9 22.8 24.1 24.8 26.9 30.2 WAPSIPINICON RIVER INDEPENDENCE 12 7.1 7.4 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.5 9.1 9.9 11.7 ANAMOSA SHAW RD 14 10.6 11.4 11.8 12.5 13.0 13.4 15.7 16.4 18.3 DE WITT 11 11.0 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.2 CEDAR RIVER VINTON 15 11.7 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.9 14.5 15.3 17.4 CEDAR RAPIDS 12 9.2 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.3 13.2 14.0 15.6 19.0 CONESVILLE 13 13.7 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.8 IOWA RIVER MARENGO 14 16.5 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.7 IOWA CITY 22 19.8 19.9 19.9 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.1 20.5 24.6 LONE TREE 15 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.5 15.7 16.2 18.4 COLUMBUS JCT 19 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.5 21.0 21.7 22.9 24.4 26.4 WAPELLO 20 21.5 22.0 22.3 22.6 22.9 23.7 25.0 25.7 26.6 ENGLISH RIVER KALONA 14 11.9 12.5 13.1 13.6 14.4 15.0 15.8 16.9 18.7 NORTH SKUNK RIVER SIGOURNEY 16 13.6 15.2 15.9 16.6 17.1 17.8 18.4 19.3 20.3 SKUNK RIVER AUGUSTA 15 11.7 12.5 13.6 14.2 15.7 16.8 17.2 18.5 20.3 DES MOINES RIVER KEOSAUQUA 22 17.8 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.4 20.1 20.4 21.2 22.1 ST FRANCISVILLE 18 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.2 19.7 20.7 21.0 21.8 22.4 PECATONICA RIVER FREEPORT 13 11.8 12.4 12.6 13.0 13.5 13.8 13.9 14.5 14.9 ROCK RIVER COMO 10 6.9 7.7 8.7 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.4 12.4 JOSLIN 12 12.4 13.2 14.0 15.1 15.5 16.4 16.9 17.1 18.3 MOLINE 12 11.6 12.1 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.5 14.8 15.3 16.5 GREEN RIVER GENESEO 15 8.7 10.7 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.2 14.1 15.3 17.1 LA MOINE RIVER COLMAR 20 16.2 17.1 19.7 20.7 21.3 21.7 22.0 23.0 23.7 ILLINOIS RIVER LA SALLE 20 17.2 19.9 21.5 22.7 23.0 23.6 24.4 25.8 28.4 HENRY 23 19.1 20.9 21.8 23.2 23.8 24.5 24.9 25.7 26.8 FOX RIVER WAYLAND 15 7.3 7.8 9.5 10.1 10.8 11.8 13.3 14.1 16.8 IN TABLE 3 BELOW FOR LOW WATER...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE CEDAR RIVER AT CEDAR RAPIDS HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 12 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE STAGE FALLING TO 4.0 FEET. ...TABLE 3--NON EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID 2/1/2010 - 5/2/2010 LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% MISSISSIPPI RIVER DUBUQUE LD11 16 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.8 DUBUQUE 17 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 BELLEVUE LD12 17 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.2 FULTON LD13 16 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 CAMANCHE 17 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 LECLAIRE LD14 11 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 ROCK ISLAND LD15 15 5.6 5.4 5.2 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 ILL. CITY LD16 15 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 MUSCATINE 16 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 NEW BOSTON LD17 15 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.5 KEITHSBURG 14 6.9 6.6 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 GLADSTONE LD18 10 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 BURLINGTON 15 8.7 8.5 8.4 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8 KEOKUK LD19 16 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.3 2.9 GREGORY LANDING 15 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 MAQUOKETA RIVER MANCHESTER HWY 20 14 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 MAQUOKETA 24 12.4 12.2 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.9 11.7 11.7 11.6 WAPSIPINICON RIVER INDEPENDENCE 12 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 ANAMOSA SHAW RD 14 6.4 6.4 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.6 DE WITT 11 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.7 CEDAR RIVER VINTON 15 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 CEDAR RAPIDS 12 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 CONESVILLE 13 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 IOWA RIVER MARENGO 14 8.7 8.6 8.3 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.3 IOWA CITY 22 11.7 11.3 11.3 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.1 10.9 LONE TREE 15 7.5 7.3 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.2 COLUMBUS JCT 19 11.8 11.5 11.3 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.3 WAPELLO 20 13.9 13.6 13.5 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.4 ENGLISH RIVER KALONA 14 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.3 NORTH SKUNK RIVER SIGOURNEY 16 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.3 SKUNK RIVER AUGUSTA 15 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.6 DES MOINES RIVER KEOSAUQUA 22 12.4 12.3 12.0 11.9 11.7 11.4 11.2 11.0 10.9 ST FRANCISVILLE 18 9.1 9.0 8.7 8.5 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.5 7.3 PECATONICA RIVER FREEPORT 13 6.8 6.5 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.3 ROCK RIVER COMO 10 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 JOSLIN 12 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.6 6.4 6.1 MOLINE 12 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.5 GREEN RIVER GENESEO 15 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.8 LA MOINE RIVER COLMAR 20 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.4 ILLINOIS RIVER LA SALLE 20 12.2 12.1 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.1 HENRY 23 15.5 15.4 15.3 15.1 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.9 14.7 FOX RIVER WAYLAND 15 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 ...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY... THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE. HOWEVER SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE. MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF SECONDARY ROADS. TRANSFER TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY TO SAVE PROPERTY. SOME EVACUATIONS MAY BE REQUIRED. MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION AND PROPERTY DAMAGE USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY EVACUATION OF PEOPLE AND LIVESTOCK AND CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF JANUARY 29 2010... .SNOW DEPTH AND LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT...THE DEPTH OF SNOW RANGES GREATLY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY BELOW NORMAL SNOW DEPTHS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TO ABOVE NORMAL SNOW DEPTHS AT AROUND EIGHT INCHES TO THE NORTHWEST IN CENTRAL IOWA. THE ASSOCIATED LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM ONE INCH OR LESS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...TO BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR INCHES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IOWA. THE LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THE RECENTLY MELTED SNOW AND ICE THAT HAS SINCE FROZEN AGAIN. .SOIL MOISTURE...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE SOIL MOISTURE WAS ABOVE NORMAL GOING INTO THE WINTER SEASON...AND THESE CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED SINCE DECEMBER. .STREAM LEVELS...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TO HIGH STREAM LEVELS ARE PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL STREAM LEVELS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS. ...WEATHER OUTLOOK... THE ONE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. EQUAL CHANCES MEAN THAT THERE ARE NO STRONG INDICATORS OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS. THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD FROM FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. ...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY...FEBRUARY 19 2010. VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/QUADCITIES FOR MORE WEATHER AND FLOOD INFORMATION. $$ MAS
- National Weather Service
- Quad Cities, IA/IL Weather Forecast Office
- 9050 Harrison Street
- Davenport Municipal Airport
- Davenport, IA 52806-7326
- 563-386-3976
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- Page last modified: Nov 10th, 2009 17:45 UTC