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000 FXUS63 KEAX 241717 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1117 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009 ...UPDATED FOR AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... /310 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/ MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST DEALS WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL AS ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY. SYNOPSIS: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WRAPPING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A DRY SLOT WAS MOVING OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHICH WAS ACTING TO STIFLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI. REGIONAL PROFILER AND AIRCRAFT REPORTS SHOWED AN APPROXIMATELY 90 TO 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PV ANOMALY. OVERLAYING VARIOUS MODELS 1.5 PVU SURFACE ON WATER VAPOR AND COMPARING THE CENTER OF THE ANOMALY TO THE DRY REGION ON WATER VAPOR IT SEEMS MODELS MAY DEPICTING THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE WEAKER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS. REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH A NICE DEFORMATION BAND SET UP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. TODAY: WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY ON WOULD ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WE SEE TODAY TO BE IN THE WRAP AROUND AREA OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AREA GETS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE LIFT WILL BE LIMITED. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE FAIRLY THICK AND WITH MODEST COOL ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY STAGNANT TODAY AND NOT RISE TOO MUCH FROM THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. SNOW POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY MINIMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM IN OUR FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TOO WARM IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LACK OF VERY GOOD DYNAMICS SHOULD KEEP THINGS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW. 925MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AS WELL SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE AREA WILL SEE ONLY LIQUID PRECIP. TONIGHT: WILL CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE POPS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED TO OUR EAST. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN/NORTHEAST MISSOURI WITH DECREASING/CLEARING SKIES ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO WINDS NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISHING. SO WESTERN AREAS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT NEAR FREEZING WHILE AREAS TO OUR EAST...WITHIN THE CLOUD COVER...SHOULD BE WARMER. WEDNESDAY: MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SURGING A SYSTEM SOUTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION SO THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN OUR HIGHS FOR THE DAY. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH...LITTLE RESISTANCE IS EXPECTED SO IT SEEMS A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY. WITH THAT THINKING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR. THE SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STARVED FOR MOISTURE BUT WITH THE CORE OF THE PV ANOMALY EXPECTED TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING TO WRING OUT A FEW DROPS AND OR FLAKES. THESE VERY SLIGHT CHANCES SHOULD ONLY AFFECT NORTHERN MISSOURI. THANKSGIVING: WITH MUCH COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY LOOKS FAIRLY CHILLY AS COLD...DRY AIR INVADES THE AREA WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR WEST AND THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD PROGRESS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN NICE WARM UP FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO THE MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY. CDB && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS...UPR LVL SYSTEM NOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP STEAM AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST. PRECIP CONTINUES TO DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR IS BEING WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN...GRADUAL CIG INCREASING FROM LOW MVFR TO HIGH MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY 00Z. WNW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS RELINQUISHING BY THIS EVE AS UPR LOW AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. FOR WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY MID-MORNING WITH A VERY NARROW BAND OF VFR CIGS LIKELY. WHILE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY CAN`T BE RULED OUT...MORE LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE A RETURN TO GUSTY NWLY WINDS. DUX && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
