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FXUS63 KDLH 240539
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1139 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAFS
&&
.AVIATION...UPDATE FOR 06Z TAFS
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS OR BLO IN FG/DZ STILL EXPECTED OVNGT...ALTHO
PDS OF HIGHER CONDS PSBL. CONDS TUE AFTN/EVE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
AS SFC TROF ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING MEETS LOW PRESS AREA MOVING UP
FROM THE S TWRD LWR MI. THIS COULD RESULT IN IMPROVING CONDS OVR
THE NWRN PARTS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING INL AND PSBLY HIB...AND
CONTD IFR/MVR OVR SWRN AREAS...INCLUDING DLH...BRD...AND HYR. THAT
IS THE TREND FOLLOWED IN THE 06Z TAF SET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
UPDATE...
NO SIG CHGS IN ZFP UPDATE. ADDED PATCHY FG TO N CENT WI COUNTIES
THAT DID NOT MENTION FG ON PVS ZFP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAFS
AVIATION...UPDATE FOR 00Z TAFS
WIDESPREAD IFR OR BLO EXPECTED THRU MOST OF TAF PD IN FG/DZ. SOME
IMPVMT IN VSBY TUE AFTN...BUT IFR/MVFR CIGS STILL LIKELY. SEE AVN
DISC BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
SHORT TERM CONCERN IS DENSE FOG TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...THEN
PRECIP EVENT MID-WEEK. LONG TERM CONCERN IS CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATE
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
HALF FOR FORECAST AREA MOVING NORTH AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH. THE RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY END LATER THIS EVENING AS IT
MOVES NORTH. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE PRECIP THE PAST 24
HOURS WILL CAUSE MORE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.
WILL KEEP FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 16Z TUESDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
IOWA TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE
MOISTURE. THE BEST BET FOR SNOWFALL WILL B ALONG A INL-GPZ-BRD
LINE WHERE A TOTAL OF 1-2 INCHES MAY FALL. A LOT OF IT MAY MELT
DUE TO TEMPS ABV FREEZING AND WARM GROUND. AREAS EAST OF AFFECTED
AREA WILL SEE LESS WITH A MIXTURE MORE LIKELY. THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA PULLS EAST OF AREA TAKING THE PRECIP WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
EXTENDED...THUR NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...ALL MODELS CONSISTENT IN
FEATURING A MID LVL RIDGE PUSHING ACROSS CWA THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE 85H TEMP ANOMALIES REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL. MDLS MID LVL FCST DIVERGES BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS NRN BRANCH AMPLIFIES JUST WEST OF REGION...AND VERY STRONG
JET MAXIMUM AMPLIFIES THE SRN BRANCH OVER THE 4 CRNS REGION.
GFS/GEM CLOSE OFF A MID LVL LOW BY 12Z SUN OVER NRN PLAINS WITH 12Z
EC SLOWER/WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE...PLACING IT OVER NE MT.
REGARDLESS THERE IS A TREND TO DIG THIS MID LVL SYSTEM SOUTH INTO
CTRL PLAINS...ACCORDING TO BOTH GFS/EC. THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE AS
MOST OF THE KINEMATICS WOULD FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF ENERGETIC SRN
BRANCH SYSTEM. SUSPECT THAT A MID LVL TROF WILL CROSS CWA
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.
AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
KINL/KHIB/KDLH UNDER IFR CEILINGS AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR
CONTINUES INTO REGION AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BDRY/INVERTED SFC
PRESSURE TROUGH. COND PRESS DEFICITS FCST SUGGESTS WHATEVER LIFTING
OF CEILING OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TEMPORARY AS STRATUS LAYER
BUILDS DOWNWARD AGAIN THIS EVENING. BR/FG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
TONIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS AS MOIST BDRY LYR COOLS OVERNIGHT.
ELONGATED SFC PRESS TROUGH WITH WINDSHIFT TO W/NW WILL ENTER INL/BRD
TERMINALS BY 18Z WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 41 46 33 38 / 50 50 40 70
INL 38 43 31 35 / 70 50 40 60
BRD 39 46 32 36 / 60 40 40 60
HYR 41 48 35 39 / 20 50 50 70
ASX 41 47 38 41 / 20 40 50 70
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ012-019>021-
026-037.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
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