RSS FeedsIssued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
000 FXUS63 KFGF 240855 AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 255 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CHALLENGE INITIALLY WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AND TEMPS. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE NORTHEAST...WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 40 CLOSE TO LOW CENTER AND LOW CLOUDS. FURTHER WEST...A CLEARING LINE IS PUSHING INTO THE VALLEY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AND WESTERLY SFC FLOW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS PERFORMING BETTER OF LATE WITH HANDLING OF QPF SO WILL UTILIZE. FOR TODAY...THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN ALL AREAS THROUGH 15Z...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF DENSE FOG NEAR THE CLEARING LINE WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RELATIVELY HIGH ALONG WITH RAIN FROM YESTERDAY CAUSING A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FROM THE VALLEY WEST WITH EASTERN AREAS CLEARING SOME BY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WE WILL REMOVE ANY PRECIP MENTION IN THE EAST...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE NEAR FOG AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING. FOR TONIGHT AND WED...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS STRONG DEEP LAYERED OMEGA AND Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE...WITH SATURATION OCCURRING LATER THIS EVENING IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND LATE TONIGHT IN THE EAST. WE WILL INCREASE POPS WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM DVL-GFK-BJI ALONG THE 700MB LOW TRACK. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE NW ON WED WITH COLD ADVECTION...SO SOME BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY POSSIBLE IF HEAVIER SNOW COMBINES WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30KT AT TIMES BY LATE WED MORNING INTO WED AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WON/T MENTION ANY BLOWING SNOW SINCE THIS WILL HINGE ON SNOWFALL...BUT MENTION POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. TEMPS MAY BE STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY FALL WED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW. ON THANKSGIVING/FRI...EXPECT DRY AND COOL WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER PATTERN. BY FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP WITH SOME SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED. FOR SAT/SUN...AN UPPER LOW MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF/GEM ARE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SAT NIGHT/SUN...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPS SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR SAT WITH TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION... IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE MAY BE AN AREA OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ DK
