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000 FXUS63 KGID 251018 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 418 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009 .DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS IS ON LIGHT PRECIP THIS MORNING AND WIND SPEEDS TODAY. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WAS CHURNING THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI...WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LAST EVENING UPPER AIR OBS ALONG WITH LATEST RUC ANALYSIS DATA REVEAL A 110 KT H3 JET STREAK NOSING INTO NORTHWEST NE. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...WHICH IS PLOWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA ATTM. COMBINATION OF FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET STREAK ALONG WITH FRONTAL FORCING HAS GENERATED AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WORKING SOUTH THROUGH NE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FAIRLY STRONG FORCING HAS OVERCOME DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. UPSTREAM SITES INCLUDING KODX AND KBBW HAVE CLICKED OFF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO...AND AREA WEBCAMS AND A PEEK OUTSIDE DEFINITELY CONFIRM MORE THAN JUST SPRINKLES/FLURRIES. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE PRECIP HAS BEEN MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE MIXING DOWN WARMER AIR FROM ALOFT...CAUSING SURFACE TEMPS TO SPIKE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH RAPIDLY SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AIDED BY 3-HR PRESSURE RISES OF 3-4 MB BEHIND IT PER MSAS DATA. THE SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP MIXING TO 775-800MB...AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHORTWAVE ALL POINT TO A WINDY DAY. WILL LIKELY BE VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES FROM AROUND MIDDAY INTO MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER. DEBATED A WIND ADVISORY BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS IT STILL LOOKS MARGINAL...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SITE OR TWO BRIEFLY TOUCH CRITERIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO...AND DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS MORNING. ONE ENCOURAGING SIGN IS THAT THE 06Z NAM IS NOT MIXING AS DEEP AS THE 00Z RUN...WHICH COULD HOLD SPEEDS DOWN JUST A TOUCH. AGAIN...THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FROM AROUND MIDDAY INTO MID AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COOLER THAN THIS. WILL SEE SOME PRETTY QUICK CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHORTWAVE. FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT IN BETWEEN THE EXITING UPPER WAVE AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SOLID REBOUND ON THANKSGIVING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL. WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...LIGHT BREEZES...AND PLENTY OF SUN. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 11-14C PER WAA. MIXING WON/T BE QUITE TO THIS LEVEL...MORE LIKE 900 OR MAYBE 875MB...WHICH STILL POINTS TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY...DROPPING TEMPS BACK BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL COME INTO PLAY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES TO BE RESOLVED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP TIED TO SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SNOW OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW AS IT SHOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL...MAYBE JUST A FEW FLAKES. CLOUDS WILL THEN THIN OUT AGAIN BUY MID MORNING. THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS...ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY BY LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ KB
