RSS FeedsIssued by NWS Goodland, KS
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000 FXUS63 KGLD 242345 AFDGLD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 445 PM MST TUE NOV 24 2009 .DISCUSSION... 215 PM MST TUE NOV 24 2009 1730Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI...WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST. A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS MONTANA. AT THE SFC...LOW WAS PRETTY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH CENTER NEAR KCNC. ACROSS THE GOODLAND CWA BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE COMMON WITH SNOW FIELD BETWEEN KGLD AND KMCK. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CLIPPER SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURE REBOUNDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND YESTERDAYS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY 12Z. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...EXPECT COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTHERN CWA IN THE PERIOD. AS FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIME PERIOD AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT INCREASE IN WINDS MAY INHIBIT COOLING SOMEWHAT AND RAISED LOWS SLIGHTLY. WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING FORCING STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE BEST DIV Q FIELDS ARE ACROSS EASTERN CWA...STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY AND WITH OVERALL NORTHERLY FLOW THERE WILL NOT BE ANY MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND OVERALL LOW PROBABILITIES OF ANY ACCUMULATION THINK THAT SNOW FLURRIES BETTER DESCRIBES OVERALL SITUATION. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK WAA MAY LINGER AROUND H7 AS POSITION OF JET STREAK WOULD PUT AREA IN FAVORABLE AREA FOR ISENTROPIC ASCENT. OVERALL AIRMASS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO PROMOTE ANYTHING OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS. THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LARGE H5 RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA...BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE WX. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. IN THE EXTENDED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED PERIODS AS NUMEROUS SOLUTIONS AVAILABLE TO HOW STRONG TROUGH EVOLVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK. SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM A CUT OFF LOW IMPACTING THE AREA THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...TO A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WITH RIDGING OVER THE AREA DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THESE DIFFERENCES WOULD OBVIOUSLY HAVE DRAMATIC IMPACTS ON THE EXPECTED WEATHER. GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE DATA WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES OF TROUGH DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WHICH WOULD NOT BE IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR THE CWA. WITH THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...FEEL THAT PICKING ANY PARTICULAR MODEL RUN AS THE "CORRECT" ONE PROBABLY NOT BEST WAY TO GO AS ENSEMBLE SPREAD VERY HIGH LATE IN THE PERIOD AND I WOULD IMAGINE THAT OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BOUNCE AROUND A BIT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL CYCLES. FOR NOW...THINK A GENERAL COOLER TREND PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO BUT WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z GEFS CYCLE BEFORE MAKING ANY FINAL CHOICE. JRM && .AVIATION... 445 PM MST TUE NOV 24 2009 FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...A QUICK CLIPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT KGLD AND KMCK EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLURRIES AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF DROP DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS SOMETIME BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z. LIGHT WINDS CURRENTLY FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 09Z. LINGERING HIGHER WIND SPEEDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT KMCK TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. BLM && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$
