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000 FXUS63 KGRR 221734 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1234 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009 LATEST UPDATE...SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS...(1234 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009) HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER TODAY INTO MONDAY BUT FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT WILL TURN COOLER LATE THIS WEEK WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR OUR THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. && .SHORT TERM...(1035 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009) (LATE MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON) WE HAVE ALLOWED THE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 1000 AM. EVEN SO...DENSE CONTINUES IN OUR EXTREME NORTHEAST COUNTIES. I EXPECT THIS WILL MIX OUT BY NOON. HOWEVER... DUE TO THE PREVAILING SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER... I AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER LAKE ERIE AND SE LOWER MICHIGAN AT 10 AM. THE HRRR RUC BRINGS THIS AREA NORTHEAST INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SO I PUT THE CLOUD EDGE IN THE GRIDS OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. I AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE FOG TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE TO STRONG OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. TO SOME EXTENT IT WAS FOR THAT REASON WE DID NOT GET MUCH FOG OVER SOUTH SW COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. I DID NOT TAKE THE AREAS OF FOG OUT OF OUR ZONES FOR TONIGHT YET BUT MAY CHANGE THAT TO PATCHY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. THE STORM JUST NOW COMING ONSHORE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL CURVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY BUT WHILE THAT SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING IT WILL BUILD AND UPSTREAM RIDGE THAT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH OR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TO ASSURE THIS AREA DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. IT SEEMS TO ME THE EARLIEST I WOULD THINK RAIN WOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA IS AFTER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM...(400 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009) (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) TWO SYSTEMS/UPPER LOWS ARE THE FOCUS/CHALLENGE OF THE LONG TERM. THE FIRST TRACKS EAST NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. HANDLING OF THE INITIAL SYSTEM SEEMS RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD... WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN AND PERHAPS EVEN A TSTM. IF THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON TIMING... BELIEVE WE WILL BE ABLE TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRAIGHTFORWARD SINCE COLDER H8 AIR NEAR -4C GETS WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT. PCPN TYPE IS A CHALLENGE SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN THE MID TO UPPER 30S DESPITE THE COLDER TEMPS COMING IN ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME... BUT AM BECOMING A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING WET SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY... BEFORE RIDGING/QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(1234 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009) COMPLICATED AND UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ESPECIALLY CONCERNING FOG AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 23Z THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. SOME OF THE STRATUS EAST OF THE AREA IS TRYING TO MOVE IN. SOME OF THIS WILL IMPACT KJXN AND KLAN WITH A SCT015-020 LAYER...BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT IT TO GO BKN AS IT IS MIXING OUT. WE WILL START OUT A BIT BETTER ON VSBYS THIS EVENING AS VSBYS ARE ALREADY BETTER THAN THEY WERE ALL DAY ON SAT. MOISTURE IS STILL HANGING AROUND AND WE ARE MIXING HIGHER DEW POINTS DOWN...SO FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT WHICH SHOULD NEGATE FOG SOMEWHAT. WE ARE ALSO WATCHING THE LOWER CLOUDS TO THE EAST COMING IN OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD AFTER SUNSET AS MIXING DIMINISHES. THIS ALSO SHOULD EXPAND AS THE MOIST AIR WILL CONDENSE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO NEGATE THE FOG SOME...BUT WE COULD VERY WELL END UP SEEING IFR CIGS DEVELOP...EARLIER TO THE EAST. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE ON MON AND THEN THROUGH 16-17Z MON. && .MARINE...(400 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009) AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL POSE A HAZARD TO MARINERS THIS MORNING AND POTENTIALLY ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALSO. OTHERWISE FAIRLY MINIMAL WIND AND WAVE ACTION IS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. && .HYDROLOGY...(400 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009) NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY. NO HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS: LAURENS/NJJ SHORT TERM: WDM LONG TERM: MEADE AVIATION: NJJ MARINE: LAURENS HYDROLOGY: LAURENS
