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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 101128
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
628 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(343 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010)
THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY TODAY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.  HOWEVER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK AND CONTINUE TO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...
ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.  A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH MID DAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE IMPACTS OF THE WIND.  THE WIND
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THE WEATHER CALMS
DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(343 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010)
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MID DAY.  THE MAIN
REASON FOR THIS WILL BE THE IMPACTS DUE TO THE STRONG NW WINDS.
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...AND TO
25 MPH INLAND.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
AS BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCASIONALLY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AND THE PROLONG DRIFTING COULD MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IF NOT NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE...ON RURAL...OPEN ROADWAYS.

THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN UP THROUGH THE MORNING.
ADDITIONAL DAYTIME ACCUMS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.  ONE EXCEPTION
MAY BE THE ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTY SHORE LINE WHICH MAY GET
CLIPPED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.  HOWEVER EVEN HERE ACCUMS SHOULD
REMAIN TWO INCHES OR LESS.  A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE PIVOTS THROUGH.  ANY SNOW SHOULD
END OR DIMINISH TO FLURRIES BY MIDNIGHT.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD APPEARS RATHER QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE SHOULD BE A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUN EACH DAY...WITH A BIT MORE CLOUDS WEST OF U.S. 131
DUE TO SOME LAKE CLOUDS.  HOWEVER H8 TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO
ANTICIPATE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.  A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  BUT IT APPEARS
THE SYSTEM WILL LACK DEEP MOISTURE...SO IT SHOULD ONLY AFFECT THE
AREA WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HI CLOUDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(343 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010)
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. NO BIG
STORMS OR WARM UPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A PERSISTENT NEGATIVE
NAO AND ARCTIC OSCILLATION WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES
STATES. WESTERN CONUS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM WHILE SUBTROPICAL JET
MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SEPARATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH WILL
BE DOMINATING OUR WEATHER. CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL COME LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY
SOUTH SO LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(628 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010)
SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF THIS MORNING AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY BUT
NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS WILL MEAN SOME BLOWING SNOW THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED IFR EARLY THIS MORNING THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
THE REST OF THE DAY WITH SOME VFR BY TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...(343 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010)
SCA ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED AS BRISK NW FLOW CONTINUES.  HAVE
EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  BY THIS TIME FRAME THE
WINDS AND WAVES WILL FINALLY DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(343 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010)
ALL AREA RIVERS ARE WITHIN BANK. ICE ON RIVERS CONTINUES TO
INCREASE SOME. RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SYCAMORE CREEK AT
HOLT IS NOW COMPLETELY ICED OVER...BUT THE ICE IS SOLID AND NO ICE
JAMS EXIST. THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON TOWNSHIP IS ALSO ICED
OVER...BUT THE ICE LOOKS STABLE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING TO DEAL WITH ANY ICE
JAM PROBLEMS AT THIS POINT. NO KNOWN ICE JAMS EXIST PER RIVER
OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING ENTIRE CWA EXCEPT FOR MASON...LAKE...
     OSCEOLA AND CLARE COUNTIES WHICH ARE UNDER A WINTER WEATHER
     ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FROM ST. JOSEPH
     TO MANISTEE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     JK
SHORT TERM:   JK
LONG TERM:    OSTUNO
AVIATION:     OSTUNO
MARINE:       JK
HYDROLOGY:    JK
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
