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000 FXUS63 KIND 241124 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 624 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 .AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 24/12Z TAFS. STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS COMPLETELY ENVELOPED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS EXPANDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN PREVALENT AT KHUF AND KBMG FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL EXPAND INTO KIND AND KLAF AS WELL FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT AS MIXING DEVELOPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE SOME RECOVERY IN CEILINGS TO MVFR CATEGORY...POSSIBLY EVEN UP INTO VFR FOR A PERIOD OF TIME LATE IN THE DAY. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO PERSIST AT KHUF AND KLAF THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALL DAY...INCREASING TO A STEADY 10KT CLIP. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR KANSAS CITY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BAND OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF ITS PASSAGE. WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AT KLAF... HAVE INSERTED PREVAILING PRECIPITATION FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING WITH VCSH MENTION AT THE OTHER THREE TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY FALL BACK THROUGH MVFR CATEGORY TO IFR LEVELS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 05-08Z AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15KTS WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 20KTS. && .DISCUSSION...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A COUPLE OF POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN DETAILS. FORECAST FOCUS CENTERS ON POPS WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEMS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE LATE IN THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. FOR TODAY...MAIN AREA OF LIFT AND SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE PLAINS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN BORDER COUNTIES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE LATER PERIODS...MODEL DATA SUGGEST SURFACE FRONT AND MAIN BAND OF LIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SYSTEM IS PRETTY DYNAMIC...BUT WITH GULF MOISTURE CUTOFF...WL RESTRICT LIKELY POPS TO THE NORTHWEST ZONES CLOSER TO THE UPPER VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND GO WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY TEND TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE FRONT. NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDWEST BY WED AFTERNOON...AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH THURSDAY. THICKNESSES SUGGEST AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES GENERALLY SUPPORT THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ALSO SUGGEST THE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHS. WILL CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...JAS AVIATION...RYAN
