National Weather Service Text Product Display

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Versions: 1 2 3
000
FGUS73 KIWX 291504
ESFIWX

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1004 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2010

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

HERE IS THE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE
KANKAKEE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND FOR THE SAINT
JOSEPH RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.

IN THE TABLE BELOW THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE TO OR ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN
THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE KANKAKEE RIVER AT DAVIS...
INDIANA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS
A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 13.7 FEET.
ST. JOSEPH RIVER AT SOUTH BEND...INDIANA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 5.5
FEET.  IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER
WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 6.3 FEET.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
        ...VALID JANUARY 29 2010 - MAY 2 2010...

LOCATION   FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
KANKAKEE RIVER
DAVIS IN       10 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.5 13.1 13.7

YELLOW RIVER
PLYMOUTH IN    13  8.9  9.4  9.7 10.1 10.6 11.1 11.9 12.7 14.0
KNOX IN        10  7.4  7.6  7.8  7.9  8.2  8.6  8.8  9.4  9.8

SAINT JOSEPH RIVER MICHIGAN
THREE RVRS MI   7  5.6  5.8  6.1  6.4  6.7  7.1  7.3  7.4  8.4
MOTTVILLE MI    8  5.1  5.3  5.6  5.9  6.1  6.4  6.6  6.9  7.8
ELKHART IN     24 21.0 21.1 21.6 21.9 22.0 22.3 22.8 23.4 24.1
SOUTH BEND IN 5.5  2.8  3.0  3.4  3.7  4.0  4.3  5.0  5.7  6.3
NILES MI       11  7.4  7.7  8.0  8.5  8.7  9.0  9.8 10.4 11.0

ELKHART RIVER
GOSHEN IN       7  3.5  3.8  4.0  4.1  4.3  4.7  5.2  5.6  6.6

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER... SOIL MOISTURE... SNOW MELT AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE
RANGE OF PROBABILITIES... THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH
LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE A PART OF NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

...SNOW COVER...
SNOW COVER WAS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
WERE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES...AND GREATER AMOUNTS WERE IN
THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
RIVERS THROUGHOUT THE REGION ARE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
RIVERS THAT WERE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLIER
THIS WEEK HAVE DROPPED WELL BELOW FLOOD LEVELS.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURE CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THE NORTHERN INDIANA HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA. THIS MEANS THERE IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL TO INDICATE
WHETHER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL. THE 30 DAY
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES THERE IS A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH MARCH 7 2010.

...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY...
THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE. HOWEVER...SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF
SECONDARY ROADS. TRANSFER TO A HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY
TO SAVE PROPERTY.

THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION AND
PROPERTY DAMAGE USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE EVACUATION OF PEOPLE
AND LIVESTOCK AND CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON
THE INTERNET AT:WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IWX... INTERNET ADDRESSES ARE ALL
IN LOWER CASE. AHPS CAN BE FOUND UNDER... CURRENT CONDITIONS/LAKES
AND RIVERS AHPS.

$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
