RSS FeedsIssued by NWS North Platte, NE
000 FXUS63 KLBF 242025 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 225 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009 .SYNOPSIS... AT 19Z...HAND ANALYSIS OF MSL DATA SHOWED THE STRONG CYCLONE CENTERED ALONG THE IOWA-MISSOURI LINE NORTHWEST OF ST. LOUIS. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED IN EASTERN MANITOBA NORTHEAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG WITH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE DAKOTA SURFACE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THERE WAS A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE INDICATED IN THE 6.7 MICRON IMAGERY ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. && .SHORT/MEDIUM RANGE...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE SURFACE FRONT PLUNGING SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY...THE SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME FRONTOGENESIS AS THE UPPER LEVEL BAROCLINIC SYSTEM REINFORCES THE FRONT. BECAUSE OF ITS FAST MOVEMENT AND A LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THEN...AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION...MILD TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY. THEN...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. ALSO...THE SYSTEM SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. .LONG RANGE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER SATURDAY...THERE IS AN INCREASING RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AMONG THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE SIMULATIONS IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS PRETTY DECENT CONSISTENCY WITH THE 00Z GFS AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND DGEX WITH THAT UPPER TROUGH. THE FASTER SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE THE SUPPORT OF THE GEM AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THUS THE NAEFS. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FASTER GFS...BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS WOULD USHER IN A PRETTY COLD PERIOD BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS UPPER FLOW FROM THE YUKON VALLEY BRINGS SOME ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE NAEFS SHOWS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING WEDNESDAY OR LATER. && .AVIATION... GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...UNTIL SUNSET. THEN WINDS DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...HOWEVER COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD MIX DOWN ENOUGH WIND DESPITE THE DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER TO KEEP THE MENTION OF LLWS BELOW INCLUSION CRITERIA IN THE TAF. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THEN TOMORROW SYSTEM EXITS WITH A RETURN TO CLR SKIES AND WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT/MEDIUM RANGE...SPRINGER AVIATION...MASEK
