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000 FXUS63 KLSX 242324 AFDLSX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 524 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009 .DISCUSSION... /306 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/ THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL MO/IA BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD TONIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGG UPSTREAM TROF NOW IN ALBERTA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE CWA INTO ERN IL BY EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH THE PREFRONTAL BAND OF RAIN. SO FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE GUSTY WNW WINDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MAINLY NE MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE EXITING LOW. THE ANTICIPATED SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL COME RACING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPSTREAM TROF/UPR LOW DIGS INTO SE IA BY EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NW WINDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NE MO INTO CENTRAL IL AS A SPOKE OF VORTICITY ROTATES SEWD THRU THE AREA. THANKSGIVING DAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE COLDEST DAY THUS FAR THIS FALL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WITHIN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE DEPTH OF THIS TROF AS IT DIGS TO OUR EAST INTO THE OH VLY ON THURSDAY IT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND BY FRIDAY HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE ALREADY ON THE RISE THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING WITH SLY WINDS AND WAA RETURNING...AND A GOOD REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO SATURDAY AS SWLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PROGRESSES FROM THE MS INTO THE OH VLY. WITH H85 TEMPS AOA +10 DEGC FORCAST I HAVE GONE ABOVE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...AND STILL COULD BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGS TOO COOL ON MY HIGHS SAT. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH DETAILS LOWERS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SPAGHETTI PLOTS LOOK JUST LIKE SPAGHETTI. THE COMMON THEME IS A NEW TROF MOVING FROM THE WRN INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA...HOWEVER THERE IS ALOT OF VARIANCE IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS/PHASING AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS FAIR TO SAY THAT THE PCPN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME...AND ACCORDINGLY I HAVE INTRODUCED SOME MENTIONABLE POPS INTO THE FCST. GLASS && .AVIATION... /524 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/ FOR THE 00Z TAFS...RAIN HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF TAF SITES. SO MAIN ISSUE WILL BE MVFR CIGS FOR MAJORITY OF FORECAST PERIOD. COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR KUIN...SO KEPT VCSH MENTION THERE...PLUS COULD SEE CIGS DIP DOWN TO IFR FOR A TIME...SO ADDED TEMPO GROUP FROM 05Z TO 09Z FOR THIS. AS SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM TAF SITES SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CIGS BY MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW...THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES BRINGING MVFR DECK BACK IN. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO PERSIST. BYRD && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
