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000 FXUS63 KMQT 242349 AAA AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 648 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS .SYNOPSIS... /ISSUED AT 430 PM EST/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS/SRN CANADA. IN THE SRN BRANCH...A SHORTWAVE WAS OVER IA/MO. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING THRU ALBERTA TOWARD ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS. THESE 2 SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER OVER UPPER MI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS OVER IA WITH A TROF/COLD FRONT EXTENDING N THRU MN. SHRA WERE WRAPPED AROUND THE THE SFC LOW WITH INCREASING DEVELOPMENT RECENTLY IN THE WARM CONVEYOR ON FRONT SIDE OF SYSTEM. ISOLD/SCT -SHRA HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN THE VCNTY OF TROF/COLD FRONT. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT/WED)... /ISSUED AT 430 PM EST/ MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE SHORTWAVE OVER IA/MO AND THE ONE OVER ALBERTA/ERN MT WILL REMAIN SEPARATE AS THEY PROGRESS THRU THE FLOW...RESULTING IN TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF DEEP LAYER FORCING AS SHOWN BY QVECTOR CONVERGENCE. THE FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH IA/MO SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH MAINLY CNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI TONIGHT/WED MORNING. THE SECOND ASSOCIATED WITH ALBERTA/ERN MT SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE MOSTLY S OF THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT. ADDED SOME TIMING DETAIL TO SHRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT... DELAYING PCPN IN MOST AREAS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT. HIT HIGHEST POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE SE HALF...CLOSER TO TRACK OF STRONGEST QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND LEFT EXIT OF UPPER JET STREAK. UTILIZED LIKELY POPS IN THAT AREA WITH CATEGORICAL OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. THERE MAY BE A GAP WITH LITTLE PCPN OVER NW UPPER MI AS THAT AREA WILL REMAIN NW OF MUCH OF THE FORCING. OVER THE FAR W...PCPN DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AIDED BY SFC COLD FRONT/TROF THAT WILL BE DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES. IT WILL BE ANOTHER NIGHT OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS. FAVORED THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE (UPPER 30S/LWR 40S) GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS. MAIN PCPN AREA ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE ERN FCST AREA BY WED AFTN. CARRIED HIGH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS THRU THE MORNING OVER THE E. PCPN FCST OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA IS MORE UNCERTAIN WED...AND THE PCPN UNCERTAINTY INCLUDES THE E IN THE AFTN. WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE STAYING MOSTLY W AND SW OF UPPER MI...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH PCPN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW...OPTED TO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS THRU THE DAY. TEMP RISE WED SHOULDN`T BE MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY)... /ISSUED AT 430 PM EST/ .WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 1004 MB SFC LOW TRACKS NEAR THE MACKINAC STRAITS BY WED NIGHT AND THEN ELONGATES AND MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST BY THANKSGIVING. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST 800-700 FGEN FORCING AND 850-500 MB Q-VECT CONV GENERALLY STAYS SE OF THE FCST WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES WOULD STILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF SEEING MEASURABLE PCPN FROM THE SYSTEM SINCE THEY ARE CLOSER TO BEST FORCING NEAR LOW. SO WL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHER CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER THESE COUNTIES. HOWEVER..LACK OF COLD AIR INITIALLY WILL LIKELY KEEP PCPN RAIN OVER THE ERN COUNTIES UNTIL LATER ON THURSDAY. LOW-LVL THICKNESSES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SHOULD LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW OVER THE WRN COUNTIES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU BUT SYSTEM PCPN THERE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO WK FORCING. MARGINAL CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO -7 TO -8C OVER THE WEST AND NCNTRL COUNTIES AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT GENERALLY EXPECT ANY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION TO BE AN INCH OR LESS WED NIGHT INTO THU. WL KEEP LIKELY POPS ALSO GOING FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN NNW FLOW. BY THE TIME TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY SNOW OVER ERN COUNTIES LATE THU...THE SYSTEM PCPN WILL GENERALLY BE WINDING DOWN AND SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. KEPT IN HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS THU NIGHT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN IN THE EVENING EAST AS NW FLOW REMAINS WEAKLY CYCLONIC AND CONVERGENT AT LOW-LVLS. HAVE JUST LOW CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POPS FARTHER INLAND. ANY REMAINING LES WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF IN THE EAST BY FRI MORNING AS RDGG/SUBSIDENCE BLDS IN SHARPLY FM THE WEST. MID-LVL RDGG SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT. PREFERRED ECMWF 12Z MODEL SOLN INDICATES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MON NIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM. KEPT IN GOING SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER ERN COUNTIES DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN WNW FLOW. && .AVIATION /FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/... MVFR CIGS PERSIST AT KCMX THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WILL PROBABLY DIP TO IFR AT KSAW WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE S/SE FLOW. MVFR VIS IS LIKELY THIS EVENING AT BOTH KSAW AND KCMX WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH LOW PRES OVR EASTERN IOWA MOVING NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...LGT RA SHOULD REACH KSAW LATE IN THE NIGHT...RESULTING IN LIFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH MUCH OF WED. WITH KCMX ON THE EDGE OF SYSTEM...INTERMITTENT LGT RA MAY DEVELOP THERE WED MORNING WITH CONDITIONS FALLING TO IFR. EXPECT LIFR CIGS AT KCMX LATER ON WED WITH MOIST AND CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BUT POTENTIAL OF LIFR VSBY WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF RAIN THAT OCCURS THERE ON WED MORNING. && .MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/... LOW PRES OVER IA WILL MOVE NE...REACHING EASTERN UPPER MI WED EVENING. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF SYSTEM...WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT TONIGHT AND WED. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY...N WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE WED NIGHT INTO THU ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-20KT OVER THE FAR W THU AFTN. OVER THE E...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 10-20KT BY SAT MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE WRN LAKES SAT WILL RESULT IN WINDS UNDER 20KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT SUN AS LOW PRES MOVES E INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...VOSS AVIATION...JLA MARINE...ROLFSON
