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000
FXUS63 KMQT 101033
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
533 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE/CLOSED
LOW MOVING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WRAPPING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE THIS STORM SYSTEM ALONG WITH SOME Q-VECT CONV AND
700 FGEN FORCING HAS HELPED SUSTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI THIS MORNING. LAKE SUPERIOR ALSO PROVIDED
SOME ENHANCEMENT TO SNOWFALL WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C
SUPPORTING LAKE DELTA-T OF AROUND 13C. LATEST 10Z RADAR IMAGERY
REVEALS BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WITH AROUND 30 DBZ REFLECTIVITY
RETURNS OVER DEERTON IN WRN ALGER COUNTY WHERE 700 MB FGEN FORCING
IS MAXIMIZED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS INDICATE THAT 700 MB FGEN FORCING COULD SUPPORT SOME MODERATE
BANDS OF SNOW OVER ERN MQT AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND 12Z
THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS EVEN A BIT LONGER. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS
AREA FOR 3-4 INCHES OF LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IN GRIDS. ELSEWHERE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MQT COUNTY EXPECT UP TO 2 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING BEFORE FORCING WEAKENS AND
SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF SOME THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT ADVISORY GOING
FOR MQT COUNTY THIS MORNING AND ALSO ISSUED AN SPS FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER ACCUMS OVER FAR WRN ALGER COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

WEAK FORCING OVER ERN MQT AND WRN ALGER COUNTY COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER
1-2 INCHES OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW THIS EVENING GIVEN MARGINALLY COLD
TEMPS/INSTABILITY BUT THEN EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF SOME OVERNIGHT
AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING BEGINS TO LIFT EAST.

SFC RDG AXIS AND ASSOC SUBSIDENCE MOVING OVER THE WRN COUNTIES
SHOULD TAPER ANY LINGERING SNOW TO FLURRIES BY THU NIGHT AND FRI.
LAKE INDUCED TROFFINESS AND CONVERGENT NW WIND FIELD WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ERN COUNTIES
THU INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY TAPER TO FLURRIES
BY LATE FRI MORNING WITH INCREASED RDGG FROM THE WEST AND LOWERING
OF SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAFS/...

DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO COME INTO THE CWA AS THE FRINGE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM ROLLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY STARTS TO MOVE AWAY.
AT KCMX...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NRLY FLOW IS TYPICALLY NOT
THE FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR HEAVIER SNOW OFF THE LAKE OR LOW CIGS AT
KCMX.

AT KSAW...N FLOW WILL BE IDEAL FOR TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW OFF THE
LAKE...BUT DRY AIR IS STARTING TO WORK IN NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE FOR THE MOST PART.
THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR EARLY THIS MORNING IN HEAVIER SNOW
AREAS. THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP THINGS MVFR WITH A N UPSLOPE FLOW.
&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR ISSUANCE/...

25 TO 30KT NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING EAST...AS LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
COAST OF DELAWARE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO OFF LONG ISLAND BY EARLY
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING CAN BE EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY...EXPECT THIS ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO SPLIT...LEAVING STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY...AND
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY MAY SHIFT OVER ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA SUNDAY...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SINKS FROM CENTRAL CANADA
TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. N WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR
30KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162-263>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$


SYNOPSIS...VOSS
DISCUSSION...VOSS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF