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000 FGUS75 KPUB 250958 ESFPUB COC003-009-011-015-021-023-025-027-041-043-055-061-065-071- 079-089-099-101-105-109-119-010700- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 258 AM MST WED NOV 25 2009 ...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS... IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT LEADVILLE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 5 FEET. IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 2.9 FEET. CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID 11/24/2009 - 3/23/2010 LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ARKANSAS RIVER LEADVILLE 5 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 SALIDA 8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 WELLSVILLE 9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 PARKDALE 9 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 CANON CITY 9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.0 PORTLAND 9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.6 PUEBLO 8 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 4.0 AVONDALE 7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.0 NEPESTA 16.5 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.4 FOWLER 8 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.9 ROCKY FORD 10 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.0 LA JUNTA 10 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.9 8.3 8.7 LAMAR 11 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.9 6.9 FOUNTAIN CREEK COLORADO SPRINGS 8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 FOUNTAIN 8 3.4 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.9 PINON 7 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 PUEBLO 10 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.0 ST CHARLES RIVER VINELAND 12 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.8 PURGATOIRE RIVER MADRID 6 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.9 TRINIDAD RESERVOIR 10 4.2 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.3 TRINIDAD 11 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.7 LAS ANIMAS 9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.6 5.3 6.2 6.5 TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN COLORADO IN OCTOBER...AND 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE PRIMARY OBSERVATION SITES AT COLORADO SPRINGS AND PUEBLO WERE 6.2 AND 6.3 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...RESPECTIVELY. THE PRIMARY SITE AT ALAMOSA WAS 2.4 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION IN OCTOBER WAS GENERALLY WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. THE PRIMARY SITES AT PUEBLO AND ALAMOSA WERE 1.28 AND 0.66 INCHES ABOVE AVERAGE...RESPECTIVELY. THE PRIMARY SITE AT COLORADO SPRINGS WAS 0.50 INCHES BELOW AVERAGE. STREAMFLOW WAS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS THE ARKANSAS AND UPPER RIO GRANDE BASINS AT THE END OF OCTOBER. SOIL MOISTURE WAS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND GENERALLY NEAR AVERAGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS THE ARKANSAS BASIN AT THE END OF OCTOBER. THE RIO GRANDE BASIN WAS RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE ARKANSAS BASIN REPORTED 98 PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORAGE AND THE RIO GRANDE BASIN REPORTED 92 PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORAGE OVERALL. THE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER...JANUARY AND FEBRUARY FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION HAS EQUAL CHANCES OF BEING AT...ABOVE...OR BELOW AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABOVE AVERAGE. ...EXPLANATION OF CONTENTS... THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/PUEBLO FOR MORE HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS. YOU CAN LINK TO THE HYDROLOGY PAGE BY CLICKING ON THE LIGHT BLUE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB NEAR THE TOP OF THE PAGE. $$ LW
