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000 FXUS63 KTOP 251110 AFDTOP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 510 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009 .UPDATE... UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS. && .DISCUSSION... SEE PREV DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH DRY AIR UNDERCUTTING MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE PASSING OVERHEAD. THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH SPRINKLES AT MHK...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...BUT WIND DIRECTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT. WOLTERS && .PREV DISCUSSION.../401 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THROUGH 08Z SHOWING LATEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE PLAINS NOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A STRONG VORT LOBE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WY MOVING SOUTHEAST. THIS IS CURRENTLY DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR...CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN ITS WAKE ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE PRECIP THAT IS REACHING THE GROUND IS LIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO...AND EVEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AS IT HEADS TOWARDS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. STILL...A POSSIBLE MIX OF SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL MID MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...AND SPRINKLES DURING THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. WITH THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKY CONDITIONS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE VORT LOBE...THEN A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WITH MORE WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN AREA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER LOW DIGS AND DEEPENS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY LATER TODAY. SHOULD STILL SEE GOOD MIXING WITHIN INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND STRONGER LOW AND MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS. SO...15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH MAY BE THE RULE...ALTHOUGH SOME MIDDAY/AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IN SOME AREAS MAY SUPPORT WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME HOWEVER. ALTHOUGH THIS MORNINGS TEMPS MAY BE SLOW TO RISE...FEEL SOME MIDDAY/AFTERNOON SUNSHINE TO HELP TEMPS CLIMB TO HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH. FOR TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY THE CENTER OF A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA RESULTING IN DECREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT WHICH WILL THEN VEER TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES... THIS WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TONIGHT AND THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LEESIDE TROUGHING. MODELS AGREE THAT LLVL WIND FIELDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WITH 850 TEMPS STEADILY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. HAVE THEREFORE RAISED HIGHS FRIDAY SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. IF THESE 850 TEMPS/LLVL WINDFIELD FCSTS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH FULL SUNSHINE...THEN NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER RAISING ADDITIONAL INCREASES TO HIGHS FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. EITHER WAY...CURRENT DRY FCST THROUGH THE DAYTIME SATURDAY LOOKS ON TRACK. MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARDS A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CHANGE CURRENT POPS/PRECIP TYPE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL NEED TO EVALUATE NEXT ROUND OF MODEL RUNS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY. THEREFORE DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FCST BEYOND SATURDAY. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$
