Wyoming Fire Weather Zone 415

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR ZONE 280... .DISCUSSION... ...YELLOWSTONE NP AND TETON DISPATCH AREAS (INCLUDES FIRE WEATHER ZONES 140...414...415...AND 416)... MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE DISPATCH AREA TODAY...WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED. GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH THE ONGOING SHOWER PRESENCE AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE DISPATCH AREA. HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASED TODAY WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY... LEAVING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL FOR THE AREA TODAY. ...RAWLINS DISPATCH AREA (INCLUDES FIRE WEATHER ZONES 277...278... AND 279)... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ZONES 277 AND 278 TODAY...WITH ZONE 279 GENERALLY REMAINING DRY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF GUSTY TO BREEZY WIND WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH FUELS CONSIDERED TO BE OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND SOME INCREASED DAYTIME HUMIDITY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TODAY. ...CODY DISPATCH AREA (INCLUDES FIRE WEATHER ZONES 275...276... 282...283...285...286...287...288...AND 289)... MOISTURE WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN ZONES TODAY. AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE BIG HORN BASIN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA...BUT HUMIDITY AND WIND SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TODAY. ...CASPER DISPATCH AREA (INCLUDES FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281... 285...289...AND 300)... CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ACROSS THE DISPATCH AREA. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NATRONA COUNTY WILL SEE HUMIDITY DIP INTO THE LOW TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTY WIND ALSO DEVELOPING. COMBINE THIS WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CRITICALLY DRY FUELS...AND THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NATRONA COUNTY IS APPARENT. THESE CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE DISPATCH AREA TODAY... BUT THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISPATCH AREA WILL SEE HUMIDITY OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OTHER THAN AT ISOLATED LOCATIONS. REGARDLESS...FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE DISPATCH AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ZONE 280. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... NORTH ZONE BRIDGER TETON NF AND GRAND TETON NP- 221 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014 .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AFTER 1200. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-77. 24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER. MIN HUMIDITY........35-41 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT UNTIL 1200...THEN 15 PERCENT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 25 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-4500 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 5000-7500 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (38000-58000 KNOT-FT) UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD (100000-120000 KNOT-FT). HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2400. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45. 24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED. MAX HUMIDITY........84-90 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER. HUMIDITY RECOVERY...EXCELLENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH. LAL.................3. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT UNTIL 2400...THEN 10 PERCENT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 25 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN AROUND 15 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN NORTHWEST. MIXING HEIGHT.......4500-7000 FT AGL UNTIL 2400...THEN 1500-4000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO VERY GOOD (86000-106000 KNOT-FT) UNTIL 2400...THEN POOR (18000-38000 KNOT-FT). HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AFTER 1200. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-71. 24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER. MIN HUMIDITY........41-47 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN WEST AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTY. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN WEST. LAL.................3. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN WEST UNTIL 1500...THEN AROUND 20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-4000 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 5000-7500 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (16000-36000 KNOT-FT) UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD (72000-92000 KNOT-FT). HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
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