Climate Outlook for New Year

Year End Climate Summary - 2011

La Niña is expected to last at into the early to middle of Northern Hemisphere spring 2012 based on model output.

A majority of the models predict a weak or moderate strength La Niña to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (Figure Below) and then gradually weaken after peaking during the December – January period.  The models are roughly split between those that predict La Niña to remain weak (3-month average in the Niño-3.4 region between -0.5 and -0.9 oC) and those that predict a stronger episode. Over the last half-century, La Niña events that were preceded by ENSO-neutral conditions during the Northern Hemisphere summer (May-August) were less likely to attain strong amplitude (stronger than –1.5 oC) the following winter. This observation, in combination with the model forecasts, favors a weak-to-moderate strength La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter, likely weakening during the early to middle of northern spring.

ENSO Model Output 2012

A La Niña Advisory continues for North America.

January 2012 Temperatures January 2012 Precipitation

Jan-Mar 2012 Temperatures Jan-Mar 2012 Precipitation

For more informaiton from the Climate Prediction Center

Seasonal Drought Outlook

The most recent U.S Seasonal Drought Outlook valid through the end of March 2012 indicates the potential for some minor improvements in drought conditions for portions of southeastern Kansas into west central Missouri.

Drought Outlook is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.