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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1103 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1055 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE
SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR
THE LEADING EDGE IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL LEAD TO A LIMITED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM THE MORNING STORMS. ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WOULD POSE A LIMITED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$








Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021830-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
1153 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.NOW...
AT 11:53 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS INDICATED WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. THE STRONGEST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS CREEK AND OKFUSKEE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
MOVEMENT REMAINS TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 30 MPH.

THROUGH 1:30 PM...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE TO OCCUR
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. WHILE AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND
WILL CONTINUE...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WHERE AVERAGE HOURLY RAINFALL MAY EXCEED ONE INCH. FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER
INCH WILL BE COMMON. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 WILL REMAIN ISOLATED
IN COVERAGE...AND PRIMARILY CONSIST OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

$$








National Weather Service
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Kansas City, Missouri
Last Modified: March 29, 2004
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