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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015


...SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TODAY....

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
   CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA....MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
ONSET...AFTERNOON.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...MID TO LATE MORNING.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA... EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE MORNING.


SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...AFTERNOON.


DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ATTENTION WILL TURN TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT
OF EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. SURFACE FEATURES WILL
ALSO COME INTO FOCUS...INCLUDING A SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING TAKES
PLACE AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS FOR SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL CARRY
AN INCREASED TORNADO RISK...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION.

ADDITIONALLY...AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH AREAL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL WILL RESULT A LIMITED FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO ENSUE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MILES AN HOUR POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AFTER A DRY MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THIS
WEEK AS THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. A
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE EAST...AND WILL
BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WORK
WEEK/EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE MAIN SYSTEM
ORGANIZES AND TRACKS INTO THE PLAINS.


WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$







Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
702 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191315-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
702 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.NOW...
AT 6:55 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS SHOWED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...MOVING EAST AROUND 40 MPH. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALREADY
LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF PAWNEE COUNTY.

THROUGH 8:00 AM...CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS OSAGE...PAWNEE COUNTIES...WITH SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION IN CREEK COUNTY. BY 9 AM...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED IN WASHINGTON...ROGERS...AND NOWATA
COUNTIES...AND ALSO PORTIONS OF TULSA COUNTY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION.

$$








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Last Modified: March 29, 2004
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