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Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
955 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221600-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
955 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.NOW...
AT 9:55 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS CONTINUED TO DETECT
RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
LOCATED ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. MOVEMENT WAS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 40 MILES AN HOUR.

THROUGH 11 AM...RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND AFFECT THAT AREA ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
69. RAINFALL COULD TOTAL ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH 11
AM...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS.

$$







Flash Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
503 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...FLOODING PROBLEMS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP FRIDAY THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

.SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN
OKLAHOMA BEGINNING TODAY AND IMPACTING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER
THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

OKZ049-053>076-222215-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0006.150522T1200Z-150525T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...HUGO...PAWHUSKA...
BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...VINITA...MIAMI...PAWNEE...TULSA...
CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...BRISTOW...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...WAGONER...
TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...SALLISAW...
MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU
503 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
  SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST
  CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...CHEROKEE...MUSKOGEE...OKFUSKEE AND
  SEQUOYAH. IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ADAIR...CRAIG...CREEK...
  DELAWARE...MAYES...NOWATA...OKMULGEE...OSAGE...OTTAWA...
  PAWNEE...ROGERS...TULSA...WAGONER AND WASHINGTON. IN SOUTHEAST
  OKLAHOMA...CHOCTAW...HASKELL...LATIMER...LE FLORE...MCINTOSH...
   PITTSBURG AND PUSHMATAHA.

* THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
  DURING THE WATCH PERIOD...BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING
  THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE COMMON THIS WEEKEND
  THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
  WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY TO RESULT GIVEN THE
  SATURATED SOILS THAT CAN NOT HANDLE MUCH MORE RAIN.
  SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FLOOD
  SITUATION. ANYONE WHO HAS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR TRAVEL PLANNED
  OVER THE COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS
  FOR POSSIBLE CLOSURES OF ROADS AND RECREATIONAL AREAS...AND PLAN
  ACCORDINGLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR
QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS
ISSUED.

IF YOU LIVE NEAR...OR TRAVEL ACROSS A STREAM...CREEK OR RIVER
OFTEN SUBJECT TO FLOODING...  NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR
DANGEROUS FLOODING.

&&

$$



Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
450 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
450 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...FLASH FLOOD THREAT INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL
   FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...LATE MORNING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...MID MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...MID MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING IN A FEW AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING...AND
MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING WILL AGAIN IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...INCLUDING NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A LIMITED THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY BE
SECONDARY TO THE MUCH LARGER THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL POSE A HEIGHTENED THREAT TO
THOSE THAT PLAN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. UPDATED FORECASTS SHOULD BE
CLOSELY FOLLOWED AND PERSONS SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD
FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE
FOR THOSE PLANNING TO SPEND TIME NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES AND
OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS WHERE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
COULD DEVELOP.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
AS A MOIST AIR-MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE AREA.
ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$






National Weather Service
Central Region Headquarters
Kansas City, Missouri
Last Modified: March 29, 2004
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