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Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
103 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-300730-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-TULSA-ROGERS-
MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-
MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...
HUGO...PAWHUSKA...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...VINITA...MIAMI...
PAWNEE...TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYOR...GROVE...JAY...SAPULPA...
OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...
CHECOTAH...SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU
103 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.NOW...
AT 103 AM...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ALONG AND EAST OF THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS STATE
LINE. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER FRANKLIN COUNTY.
MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 35 MPH...WITH AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

THROUGH 230 AM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD...AND END ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER FRANKLIN COUNTY MOVING OUT BY 145 AM.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS STRONGER
ACTIVITY. OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS COVERAGE
LESSENS...HOWEVER...MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE AND MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

$$



Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
446 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
446 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

INCREASING INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OUT
WEST WILL AID IN A CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH A DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT
REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL AS A LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A MCALESTER TO POTEAU LINE.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF AROUND A HALF INCH TO GREATER THAN ONE INCH ON TOP OF
RAINS THAT FELL THIS MORNING WILL HELP TO CREATE POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING CONDITIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS PARTS OF
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL TO REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EXIT THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF WITH THE EXITING FRONT. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES QUICKLY RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS.
BEHIND THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH MORE QUIET WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$





National Weather Service
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Kansas City, Missouri
Last Modified: March 29, 2004
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