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Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1214 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191915-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
1214 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.NOW...
AT NOON...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...ACROSS POTIONS OF OSAGE...WASHINGTON...ROGERS AND
NORTHERN TULSA COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND
40 MPH. OTHER LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY VIRGA...WAS SCATTERED OVER
AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.

THROUGH 2 PM...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM MIAMI TO MCALESTER.

$$







Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
107 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
107 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO MCALESTER.
ONSET...3 PM TO 8 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...2 PM TO 9 PM.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
        CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
LARGE HAIL...AROUND 2 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.  ADDITIONALLY...A LIMITED RISK OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MCALESTER TO FAYETTEVILLE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHICH MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER PATTERN
RETURNS TO AN UNSETTLED STATE.  THIS WILL RETURN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$







National Weather Service
Central Region Headquarters
Kansas City, Missouri
Last Modified: March 29, 2004
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