-- CONVECTION -- AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS MARQUETTE MI 1150 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 .DISCUSSION... AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN ALGER COUNTY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS ASSOCIATED 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST HOUR SUPPORT THIS AS PEAK REFLECTIVITIES ARE DOWN...AS ARE LIGHTNING TRENDS. OTHERWISE...STILL CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS LAKE BREEZES INITIATE AND DIURNAL CU CONTINUES TO DEVELOP...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN CWA ALREADY. NAM INDICATES 850-700MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5 C/KM...AND TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM SAW AND RHI WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO SHOW DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER BUFKIT ANALYSIS INDICATES A CAPPING INVERSION DEVELOPING AT 600-650MB...WHICH THE RHI TAMDAR SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES...AND WOULD KEEP STRONG CU/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM. ------------------------- AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS GAYLORD MI 955 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2005 .UPDATE...THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE SE CWA. COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT IS SWINGING ACROSS NRN LOWER AT THIS TIME. SFC TD'S ARE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS THIS AREA STILL...BUT MODIFYING APX SOUNDINGS AND AREA TAMDAR SOUNDINGS REVEALED THAT THERE WAS TOO MUCH DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SFC (TO H8 WHERE TD'S WERE AROUND 8C) AND TOO MUCH CIN TO OVERCOME (25-60J/KG)... ------------------------- AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS GAYLORD MI 1035 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2005 TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE IS ROUGHLY A FEW HUNDRED TO AS HIGH AS 1200J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE LIFTING FROM THE 925 AND 850MB LEVELS...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST 40- 70J/KG ON CIN TO OVERCOME. WITH MAIN FORCING TO OUR WEST AND ONLY NIL-WEAK 925- 850MB CONVERGENCE EXPECTED...DO NOT SEE ANY DEVELOPING PRECIP AFTER 06Z...SHOULD JUST SEE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING EASTWARD TOWARD US... ------------------------- AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS GREEN BAY WI 215 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THU. FCST FOCUS IN SHORT TERM ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES WRMFNT MOVG N THRU N IL AND NE IA. AMS OVR MUCH OF CNTRL AND NE WI VERY STABLE DUE TO CANADIAN AIR THAT MOVD INTO REGION BEHIND SECONDARY CDFNT LAST NIGHT (EARLY AFTN CINS WERE OVER 250 J/KG). QUITE UNSTABLE S OF FNT...WITH SBCAPES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG IN SW WI...BUT STILL CAPPED IN THAT AREA PER MID-DAY TAMDAR SOUNDINGS. WEAKER CAP S OF CHICAGO WHERE TSTMS DID DVLP. ------------------------- AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI 340 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2005 TONIGHT...CAP HAS ERODED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NRN IN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AIRMASS SUPPORTING 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. TONIGHT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY PUSH TO THE FRONT AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT TO OUR S. CURRENTLY THE CENTRAL AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAVE MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH VIRTUALLY NO CIN AS INDICATED BY TAMDAR PROFILE FROM MKG THIS AFTERNOON AND LAPS OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. ------------------------- AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NWS SIOUX FALLS SD 315 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 .DISCUSSION... CONCERNS FOR THIS PACKAGE ARE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND WITH EACH ONE WHETHER OR NOT THE CAP WILL SUPPRESS ACTIVITY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STOUT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SEEN ON MORNING RAOBS AS WELL AS A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE. 1925Z ACARS SOUNDING FROM ABR SHOWS CAP AROUND 800MB...WITH PLENTY MORE WARMING NEEDED TO BREAK THROUGH. ------------------------- AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 337 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 .SHORT-TERM UPDATE...CORRECTION TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL GENERALLY WEAK WINDS ALOFT OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY OF CONVECTION...THUS HEAVY RAINFALL IN SLOWER MOVING CELLS ALSO LIKELY... NW-SE ORIENTATED LINE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR STILL SOMEWHAT MARGINAL TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED/SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION...THUS STORMS MORE MULTI-CELL/PULSE IN NATURE ATTM. HOWEVER...DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...18Z GRB AND 1735Z ATW TAMDAR AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL CAPE. THIS ENVIRONMENT... IN CONCERT WITH BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT AND LAKE-INDUCED BOUNDARIES...CAUSING FEW STORMS TO GENERATE VERY BRIEF WEAK SPIN-UPS...WITH A PUBLIC AND LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORT OF A TORNADO NEAR NEW LONDON. IT APPEARS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW GENERALLY WEAK BRIEF SPIN-UPS NEXT HOUR OR SO... ESPECIALLY NEAR BOUNDARIES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO STRENGTHEN OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING AS UPPER-JET MAX OF 60 KNOTS APPROACHES SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...THUS ANTICIPATE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AFTER INITIAL MULTICELL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.