WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
2006-2007 WINTER OUTLOOK


WE EXPECT THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN TO PRODUCE MORE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS OVER THE REGION THAN USUAL.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN WARMER AND
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

SYNOPSIS: THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING ABOVE
AVERAGE OCEAN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN THIS UPCOMING WINTER.  THIS MEANS EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SPRING OF 2007.  PAST WINTER SEASONS THAT
EXPERIENCED EL NINO CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REVIEWED TO FIND YEARS WITH
SIMILAR OCEANIC CONDITIONS AS THOSE FORECAST FOR THIS WINTER.  IN
ADDITION, WEATHER PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE SUMMER AND EARLY
FALL MONTHS OF 2006 WERE USED TO PREDICT THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
WE CAN EXPECT FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE AVERAGE.  THE WARMEST
AREAS, COMPARED TO AVERAGE, ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.  DESPITE THE FORECAST FOR
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...ARCTIC INTRUSIONS WILL OCCUR AT
TIMES ACROSS THE REGION.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THESE INTRUSIONS
IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE ON THE
PLAINS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH NEAR
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS, THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS, AND THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FOR NOVEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY
AVERAGES ONLY 1.6 TO 2.5 INCHES, WHICH IS ONLY ABOUT FIFTEEN
PERCENT OF THE ANNUAL AVERAGE.  THUS, EVEN IF THE PRECIPITATION IS
20 PERCENT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, IT WOULD ONLY BE A
0.3 TO 0.5 INCH DEFICIT OVER THE FOUR MONTH PERIOD ON THE PLAINS.

IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND BEAR LODGE
MOUNTAINS, AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IS 4.5 TO 6
INCHES.  THEREFORE, DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
AND THE BLACK HILLS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE WINTER MONTHS.
THE POTENTIAL LACK OF SNOW PACK THIS WINTER WILL LIMIT RUNOFF,
WHICH IS VITAL FOR THE REFILLING OF LAKES FOR IRRIGATION AND DUGOUTS
FOR RANCHERS.


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