...15 MAY THROUGH 31 AUGUST 2006 SUMMER OUTLOOK...

SYNOPSIS…

THE CLIMATE  PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING THAT THE BELOW NORMAL OCEAN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRAL BY JULY. THIS MEANS THAT LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THESE FORECAST CONDITIONS WERE COMPARED WITH PAST SUMMER SEASONS THAT PRODUCED SIMILAR OCEAN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN . PREVIOUS YEARS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN WERE THEN LOOKED AT TO FIND YEARS WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN AS THIS PAST WINTER. THESE YEARS WERE ALSO EXAMINED FOR SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERNS IN MARCH AND APRIL. THESE DATA WERE USED TO PREDICT THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WE CAN EXPECT FOR THIS UPCOMING SUMMER.

WE EXPECT THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN TO PRODUCE DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER BEGINNING BY THE END OF MAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AUGUST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA . THE COOL PATTERN WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID MAY AND THEN GIVE WAY TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES…ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MAY THROUGH MID JULY.  
 

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK…

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM MAY THROUGH AUGUST. THE WARMEST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE PLAINS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA . THE BEST CHANCE OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. 
 

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK…

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT NORTHEASTERN WYOMING …

SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE BLACK HILLS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA .

 
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE 60 TO 80 PERCENT OF NORMAL . PRECIPITATION FOR MAY THROUGH AUGUST AVERAGES 7 TO 9 INCHES ON THE PLAINS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND 9 TO 11 INCHES IN THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS. BASED ON THESE CONDITIONS OCCURRING…

THIS WOULD RESULT IN A 1.5 TO 3.5 INCH RAINFALL DEFICIT ON THE PLAINS AND A 2.0 TO 4.0 INCH DEFICIT IN THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS. 

IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE 60 TO 80 PERCENT OF NORMAL . RAINFALL MAY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA . IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA …

PRECIPITATION FOR MAY THROUGH AUGUST AVERAGES 9 TO 11 INCHES ON THE PLAINS AND 11 TO 14 INCHES IN THE BLACK HILLS. BASED ON THESE CONDITIONS OCCURRING…THIS WOULD RESULT IN A 2 TO 6 INCH RAINFALL DEFICIT IN THE BLACK HILLS AND A 2.0 TO 4.5 INCH DEFICIT ON THE PLAINS.

 
MAY THROUGH AUGUST PRECIPITATION IS 45 TO 60 PERCENT OF THE YEARLY RAINFALL. IF THE EXPECTED DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OCCUR…RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER

THE SUMMER MONTHS AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO WORSEN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS BY THE END OF SUMMER.


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.