...15 MAY THROUGH 31 AUGUST 2007 SUMMER OUTLOOK...


SYNOPSIS...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING THAT NEUTRAL OCEAN
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN WILL BECOME BELOW
NORMAL BY JUNE. THIS MEANS THAT LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR THE SUMMER OF 2007. THESE FORECAST OCEAN CONDITIONS WERE
COMPARED WITH PAST SUMMER SEASONS THAT PRODUCED SIMILAR OCEAN
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND THEN THE WEATHER
PATTERNS WERE COMPARED. THESE YEARS WERE ALSO EXAMINED FOR SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERNS IN MARCH AND APRIL. FINALLY...THESE DATA WERE USED
TO PREDICT THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS UPCOMING SUMMER.

WE EXPECT THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN TO PRODUCE DRIER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER BEGINNING BY THE END OF MAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AUGUST.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATE MAY
THROUGH AUGUST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FROM MAY THROUGH AUGUST. THE BEST CHANCE OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS SUMMER...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL IN NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE 70 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL. PRECIPITATION FOR MAY
THROUGH AUGUST AVERAGES 7 TO 9 INCHES ON THE PLAINS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND 9 TO 11 INCHES IN THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS. BASED ON
THESE CONDITIONS OCCURRING...THIS WOULD RESULT IN A 1.0 TO 2.5 INCH
RAINFALL DEFICIT ON THE PLAINS AND A 1.0 TO 2.0 INCH DEFICIT IN THE
BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS.

IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 90
PERCENT OF NORMAL. PRECIPITATION FOR MAY THROUGH AUGUST AVERAGES 9
TO 11 INCHES ON THE PLAINS AND 11 TO 14 INCHES IN THE BLACK HILLS.
BASED ON THESE CONDITIONS OCCURRING...THIS WOULD RESULT IN A 1.0 TO
3.0 INCH RAINFALL DEFICIT IN THE BLACK HILLS AND A 1.0 TO 2.0 INCH
DEFICIT ON THE PLAINS.

MAY THROUGH AUGUST PRECIPITATION IS 45 TO 60 PERCENT OF THE YEARLY
RAINFALL. IF THE EXPECTED DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OCCUR...
RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SUMMER
MONTHS. IF THIS RAINFALL DEFICIT OCCURS...THEN THE CURRENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SUMMER.

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