WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING 2008-2009 WINTER OUTLOOK

 


SYNOPSIS…

THE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY CALLS FOR NEAR AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. AS OF LATE SEPTEMBER…NEAR-NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SPRING OF 2009.  NOTE THAT THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR MULTI-YEAR LA NINA EPISODES...THUS A RETURN TO WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE THIS WINTER. THE PRESENT 2008-2009 WINTER OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CONTINUATION OF NEUTRAL CONDITIONS…BUT A RETURN TO A WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY MEAN A COOLER AND WETTER FORECAST.

 
 

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK…

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS HAS BEEN THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WINTERS. HOWEVER…OCCASIONAL STRONG ARCTIC INTRUSIONS ARE POSSIBLE…WHICH WOULD MAINLY AFFECT CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

 

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK…
NEAR AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FOR NOVEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY AVERAGES ABOUT 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES…WHICH IS ONLY AROUND 10 PERCENT OF THE ANNUAL AVERAGE. IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS…AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS 4 TO 6 INCHES.

 

 

 


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