...15 MAY THROUGH 31 AUGUST 2008 SUMMER OUTLOOK...


SYNOPSIS...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING COLDER THAN NORMAL OCEAN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THIS SUMMER. THIS MEANS THAT WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH JUNE 2008...POSSIBLY LONGER. THESE OCEANIC CONDITIONS...
ALONG WITH RECENT WEATHER PATTERNS...WERE USED TO DEVELOP OUR PREDICTION OF THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FOR THIS SUMMER.

OUTLOOK...
WE EXPECT DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF MAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AUGUST...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IN NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER PART OF MAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE SUMMER...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

IMPACTS...
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE 70 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL. RAINFALL FOR MAY THROUGH AUGUST AVERAGES 7 TO 9 INCHES ON THE PLAINS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND 9 TO 11 INCHES IN THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS. BASED ON OUR FORECAST...THIS WOULD RESULT IN A 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL DEFICIT ON THE PLAINS...AND A 1 TO 2 INCH DEFICIT IN THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS.

IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL. RAINFALL FOR MAY THROUGH AUGUST AVERAGES 9 TO 11 INCHES ON THE PLAINS AND 11 TO 14 INCHES IN THE BLACK HILLS. BASED ON OUR FORECAST...THIS WOULD RESULT IN A 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL DEFICIT IN THE BLACK HILLS...AND A 1 TO 2 INCH DEFICIT ON THE PLAINS.

IF THIS RAINFALL DEFICIT OCCURS...THEN THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS FROM THE NINE YEARS OF DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE. HEAVY RAINS AND SNOW DURING EARLY
MAY HAVE CAUSED DUGOUTS AND STOCK PONDS ACROSS BUTTE...HARDING AND MEADE COUNTIES TO BEGIN TO REFILL. OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA HAVE REPORTED LITTLE CHANGE SO FAR. STOCK PONDS AND DUGOUTS IN THE SEVERE DROUGHT AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY LOW.

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