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Flash Flood Watch


FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1034 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NMZ501-502-504>509-511-518>522-524>526-060400-
/O.NEW.KABQ.FF.A.0008.150705T2000Z-150706T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
SANTA FE METRO AREA-MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
1034 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM MDT
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NM...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...CHUSKA MOUNTAINS...ESTANCIA
  VALLEY...JEMEZ MOUNTAINS...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...MIDDLE RIO
  GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA...NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS...
  NORTHWEST PLATEAU...SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY...SANDIA/MANZANO
  MOUNTAINS...SANTA FE METRO AREA...SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...
  SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...UPPER TULAROSA
  VALLEY...WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND WEST
  CENTRAL PLATEAU.

* FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING

* A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WEST
  HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY
  RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING. SOME TRAINING OF STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ALSO
  ENHANCING THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. WITHIN THE WATCH AREA THE
  GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST TO THE SOUTH OF
  INTERSTATE 40 AND FROM THE MANZANO AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
  WESTWARD. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE
  TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME PATCHY LIGHTER RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE PAST
  MIDNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

43


Hazardous Weather Outlook


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NMZ501>540-061200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
534 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND RAINFALL COULD BECOME
HEAVY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR RECENT AND OLDER BURN SCARS. ISOLATED
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS
MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND RAINFALL COULD BECOME
HEAVY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR RECENT AND OLDER BURN SCARS...AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS. ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING
1.888.386.7637. YOU CAN ALSO SUBMIT STORM REPORTS AND PHOTOS ON
OUR FACEBOOK PAGE OR VIA TWITTER USING THE HASHTAG N M W X.

$$

11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
338 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-060845-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
338 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 /238 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WEST TEXAS, AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS, PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND


Hydrologic Outlook


HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NMZ501>540-071630-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1022 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...FLASH FLOODING WITH MAIN STEM RIVER RISES EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY...

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL GET AN EXTRA BOOST BY A
STRONG SURFACE FRONT SURGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL FOCUS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOIL CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS MANY AREAS DUE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY INDICATE WIDESPREAD AVERAGE
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS TARGETING THE POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING THAT MAY LEAD TO RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS AND
THEIR TRIBUTARIES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON
THIS OUTLOOK IN THE FORM OF FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...RIVER FORECAST
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
UPDATED WHEN THE MORE ELEVATED FLOOD HAZARD PERIOD DIMINISHES.

$$

GUYER


Short Term Forecast


SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
921 AM MST SUN JUL 5 2015

AZZ501-502-051900-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O"ODHAM NATION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AJO...ORGAN PIPE CACTUS N.M....SELLS
921 AM MST SUN JUL 5 2015

.NOW...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE HALF OF AN INCH MAY ALSO OCCUR. BRIEF
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

$$

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Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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