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Flood Warning


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
956 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015



...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Mississippi...

  Big Black River At West affecting Attala and Holmes Counties
  Big Black River Near Bentonia affecting Madison and Yazoo Counties
  Big Black River Near Bovina affecting Hinds and Warren Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don`t
drown!

Additional information is available at:
http://ahps.srh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC007-051-072156-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WSTM6.1.ER.150223T0126Z.150226T0700Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
956 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Black River At West
* until further notice.
* At  8:45 AM Friday the stage was 16.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 17.3 feet just
  after midnight tonight.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Several thousand acres of agricultural and
  lowland become inundated.

&&

              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Sat   Sun   Mon Crest Time  Date

Upper Big Black River
West           15  16.8 Fri 09 AM  17.3  16.9  16.4  17.3 12 AM 03/07


&&


LAT...LON 3291 9006 3314 8990 3330 8981 3322 8963
      3313 8969 3285 8987



$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
940 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TXC067-315-071540-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/JEFT2.1.ER.150305T0815Z.150309T0500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
940 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Black Cypress Bayou At Jefferson Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 900 AM Friday the stage was 14.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13 feet.
* Forecast...The bayou will continue rising to near 15.5 feet by
  early Monday morning then begin falling.
* Impact...Minor lowland flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3297 9448 3275 9425 3275 9433 3278 9440 3289 9450

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
938 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TXC037-067-343-071538-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NAPT2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.150309T1100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
938 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Sulphur River Near Naples Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 710 AM Friday the stage was 24.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 26.6 feet by
  Monday morning then begin falling.
* Impact...Minor lowland flooding and flooding along boat ramps.

&&

LAT...LON 3331 9466 3328 9456 3330 9447 3324 9462 3326 9466

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
938 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TXC159-343-387-449-071538-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-150308T2136Z/
/TLCT2.1.ER.150305T0439Z.150306T1800Z.150308T0336Z.NO/
938 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

...The flood warning extended until Sunday afternoon...The flood
warning continues for
  the Sulphur River Below Talco Texas.
* until Sunday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 915 AM Friday the stage was 24.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 24.7 feet by this
  Friday afternoon.  The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow by
  Saturday late evening.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Expect moderate flooding of lowland areas
  with some secondary roadways closed. All cattle and equipment
  nearby the river should be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3338 9530 3341 9488 3331 9466 3326 9466 3331 9478

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
938 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TXC159-343-449-071538-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0032.150306T1536Z-150311T1200Z/
/WOCT2.1.ER.150306T1400Z.150308T1100Z.150310T1800Z.NO/
938 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

...The flood warning extended until Wednesday morning...The flood
warning continues for
  the White Oak Creek Near Talco Texas.
* until Wednesday morning...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 915 AM Friday the stage was 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 16 feet.
* Forecast...The creek will continue rising to near 17.0 feet by
  Sunday morning.  The creek will fall below flood stage Tuesday early
  afternoon.
* Impact...Minor lowland flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3328 9531 3336 9506 3328 9466 3324 9465 3326 9513

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
935 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

ARC027-LAC119-071535-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SPHL1.1.ER.150224T0400Z.150308T1700Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
935 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Bayou Dorcheat Near Springhill Louisiana.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 900 AM Friday the stage was 13.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11 feet.
* Forecast...The bayou will continue rising to near 14.0 feet by
  Sunday early afternoon then begin falling.
* Impact...at 13.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding of boat ramps. Move
  livestock to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 9339 3300 9335 3282 9332 3282 9338 3300 9343

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
919 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

...From the National Weather Service in Little Rock...the Flood
Warning continues for the following river in Arkansas...

  Ouachita River At Camden affecting Calhoun and Ouachita Counties

  Ouachita River At Thatcher L&D affecting Bradley...Calhoun and
  Union Counties


River forecasts are based on current conditions and rainfall
forecasted to occur over the next 12 hours. During periods of
flooding...Evening forecasts are reissued with updated rainfall
forecasts.

Observed and forecasted stage data plots are available on ourAdvanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service web page at...
www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk
Under the Current Conditions section...Select River and Lakes AHPS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Remember to Turn Around...Don`t Drown
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Everyone with property or other interest along streams and rivers
should remain alert to changing weather forecast. Should conditions
change...Look for river forecast or Flood Warnings for use in

&&

ARC011-013-139-070619-
/O.CON.KLZK.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CALA4.1.ER.150226T2312Z.150311T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
919 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Ouachita River At Thatcher L&D.
* until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 6:00 AM Friday the stage was 81.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 79.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 84.3 feet by
  Wednesday morning.
* Impacts at 83.0 feet...Access to oil and gas rigs and to timber
  is flooded. Calhoun County Road 131 is completely under water
  leading to old Lock 8 river access.



&&


             Fld     Observed                 Forecast 7 AM
Location     Stg   Stg  Day Time    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue    Wed

Ouachita River
  Thatcher L  79  81.1 Fri 06 AM   82.0   82.7   83.2   83.8   84.3


&&


LAT...LON 3311 9223 3323 9236 3329 9261 3338 9247
 3333 9226 3322 9212



$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
919 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

...From the National Weather Service in Little Rock...the Flood
Warning continues for the following river in Arkansas...

  Ouachita River At Camden affecting Calhoun and Ouachita Counties

  Ouachita River At Thatcher L&D affecting Bradley...Calhoun and
  Union Counties


River forecasts are based on current conditions and rainfall
forecasted to occur over the next 12 hours. During periods of
flooding...Evening forecasts are reissued with updated rainfall
forecasts.

Observed and forecasted stage data plots are available on ourAdvanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service web page at...
www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk
Under the Current Conditions section...Select River and Lakes AHPS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Remember to Turn Around...Don`t Drown
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Everyone with property or other interest along streams and rivers
should remain alert to changing weather forecast. Should conditions
change...Look for river forecast or Flood Warnings for use in

&&

ARC013-103-070619-
/O.CON.KLZK.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CAMA4.1.ER.000000T0000Z.150309T1100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
919 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Ouachita River At Camden.
* until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 8:30 AM Friday the stage was 27.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 31.9 feet by
  Monday morning.
* Impacts at 28.0 feet...Sandy Beach Park and portions of the Riverwalk
  area off of Washington Street are inundated.
* Impacts at 30.0 feet...State Highway 7 north of Camden floods, with
  detours nearby. Portions of Sandy Beach Park will flood. Some county
  roads north and east of Camden begin to flood.



&&


             Fld     Observed                 Forecast 7 AM
Location     Stg   Stg  Day Time    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue    Wed

Ouachita River
  Camden      26  27.9 Fri 08 AM   29.2   30.7   31.9   31.0   29.7


&&


LAT...LON 3329 9261 3344 9280 3363 9289 3367 9275
 3350 9264 3338 9247



$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
916 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

...From the National Weather Service in Little Rock...the Flood
Warning continues for the following river in Arkansas...

  White River At Augusta affecting White and Woodruff Counties

  Cache River Near Patterson affecting Jackson and Woodruff Counties


River forecasts are based on current conditions and rainfall
forecasted to occur over the next 12 hours. During periods of
flooding...Evening forecasts are reissued with updated rainfall
forecasts.

Observed and forecasted stage data plots are available on ourAdvanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service web page at...
www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk
Under the Current Conditions section...Select River and Lakes AHPS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Remember to Turn Around...Don`t Drown
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Everyone with property or other interest along streams and rivers
should remain alert to changing weather forecast. Should conditions
change...Look for river forecast or Flood Warnings for use in

&&

ARC067-147-070615-
/O.CON.KLZK.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PTTA4.1.ER.150222T2000Z.150228T1500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
916 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cache River Near Patterson.
* until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 8:00 AM Friday the stage was 9.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 10.2 feet by
  Wednesday evening.
* Impacts at 10.0 feet...Pastureland and cropland not protected by
  levees in Jackson and Woodruff counties affected. Water is deep along
  the shoulders of State Highway 18 near Grubbs. Water over portions of
  Woodruff County Road 775 north of State Highway 260.


&&


             Fld     Observed                 Forecast 7 AM
Location     Stg   Stg  Day Time    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue    Wed

Cache River
  Patterson    8   9.3 Fri 08 AM    9.5    9.7   10.0   10.1   10.2


&&


LAT...LON 3510 9133 3522 9128 3539 9123 3538 9113
 3521 9117 3508 9122



$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
916 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

...From the National Weather Service in Little Rock...the Flood
Warning continues for the following river in Arkansas...

  White River At Augusta affecting White and Woodruff Counties

  Cache River Near Patterson affecting Jackson and Woodruff Counties


River forecasts are based on current conditions and rainfall
forecasted to occur over the next 12 hours. During periods of
flooding...Evening forecasts are reissued with updated rainfall
forecasts.

Observed and forecasted stage data plots are available on ourAdvanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service web page at...
www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk
Under the Current Conditions section...Select River and Lakes AHPS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Remember to Turn Around...Don`t Drown
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Everyone with property or other interest along streams and rivers
should remain alert to changing weather forecast. Should conditions
change...Look for river forecast or Flood Warnings for use in

&&

ARC145-147-070616-
/O.EXT.KLZK.FL.W.0013.150307T1200Z-150312T0000Z/
/AUGA4.1.ER.150307T1200Z.150308T2300Z.150310T1800Z.NO/
916 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The White River At Augusta.
* from Saturday morning to Wednesday evening...Or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At 8:00 AM Friday the stage was 24.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage Saturday morning and continue
  to rise to near 27.0 feet by Sunday evening.
* Impacts at 26.0 feet...Farm ground along the river in White and Woodruff
  counties begin to flood.


&&


             Fld     Observed                 Forecast 7 AM
Location     Stg   Stg  Day Time    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue    Wed

Lower White River
  Augusta     26  24.4 Fri 08 AM   26.0   26.8   26.9   26.2   25.3


&&


LAT...LON 3514 9152 3525 9146 3537 9150 3534 9136
 3521 9133 3515 9137



$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
901 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

...From the National Weather Service in Little Rock...the Flood
Warning continues for the following river in Arkansas...

  Black River At Black Rock affecting Independence...Jackson and
  Lawrence Counties


River forecasts are based on current conditions and rainfall
forecasted to occur over the next 12 hours. During periods of
flooding...Evening forecasts are reissued with updated rainfall
forecasts.

Observed and forecasted stage data plots are available on ourAdvanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service web page at...
www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk
Under the Current Conditions section...Select River and Lakes AHPS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Remember to Turn Around...Don`t Drown
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Everyone with property or other interest along streams and rivers
should remain alert to changing weather forecast. Should conditions
change...Look for river forecast or Flood Warnings for use in

&&

ARC063-067-075-070601-
/O.EXT.KLZK.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-150309T1600Z/
/BKRA4.1.ER.150305T1022Z.150306T1015Z.150308T1000Z.NO/
901 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Black River At Black Rock.
* until Monday morning...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 8:00 AM Friday the stage was 15.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested just over 15.0 feet and will fall
  to below flood stage by Sunday morning.


&&


             Fld     Observed                 Forecast 7 AM
Location     Stg   Stg  Day Time    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue    Wed

Black River
  Black Rock  14  15.2 Fri 08 AM   14.8   13.9   13.2   12.8   13.0


&&


LAT...LON 3570 9140 3591 9125 3612 9115 3610 9101
 3588 9110 3564 9128



$$


Special Weather Statement


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
458 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-062200-
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-
CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TIPPAH-ALCORN-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-TATE-
PRENTISS-COAHOMA-QUITMAN-PANOLA-LAFAYETTE-UNION-PONTOTOC-LEE MS-
ITAWAMBA-TALLAHATCHIE-YALOBUSHA-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-MONROE-LAKE-
OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-BENTON TN-LAUDERDALE-
TIPTON-HAYWOOD-CROCKETT-MADISON-CHESTER-HENDERSON-DECATUR-SHELBY-
FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...POCAHONTAS...PIGGOTT...CORNING...
RECTOR...WALNUT RIDGE...HOXIE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...TRUMANN...
MARKED TREE...HARRISBURG...LEPANTO...BLYTHEVILLE...OSCEOLA...
WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...MARION...FORREST CITY...MARIANNA...
WEST HELENA...HELENA...KENNETT...MALDEN...SOUTHAVEN...
OLIVE BRANCH...HORN LAKE...HOLLY SPRINGS...ASHLAND...
HICKORY FLAT...RIPLEY...CORINTH...IUKA...BELMONT...BURNSVILLE...
NORTH TUNICA...TUNICA...SENATOBIA...COLDWATER...BOONEVILLE...
CLARKSDALE...LAMBERT...MARKS...CROWDER...SLEDGE...BATESVILLE...
SARDIS...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...PONTOTOC...TUPELO...FULTON...
MANTACHIE...CHARLESTON...TUTWILER...WEBB...WATER VALLEY...
COFFEEVILLE...BRUCE...CALHOUN CITY...VARDAMAN...DERMA...HOUSTON...
OKOLONA...AMORY...ABERDEEN...NETTLETON...TIPTONVILLE...RIDGELY...
UNION CITY...MARTIN...DRESDEN...PARIS...DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...
MILAN...TRENTON...DYER...MCKENZIE...HUNTINGDON...BRUCETON...
CAMDEN...HALLS...COVINGTON...MUNFORD...ATOKA...BROWNSVILLE...
ALAMO...BELLS...MAURY CITY...FRIENDSHIP...JACKSON...HENDERSON...
LEXINGTON...PARSONS...DECATURVILLE...BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN...
COLLIERVILLE...MILLINGTON...SOMERVILLE...OAKLAND...GALLAWAY...
BOLIVAR...WHITEVILLE...SELMER...ADAMSVILLE...SAVANNAH
458 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

...TRAVEL WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...

HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET THAT FELL ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. ICE AND SNOW PACKED ROADWAYS WILL PERSIST TODAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE THE DEEPEST SNOW
COVER OCCURRED. BLACK ICE WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM.

FULL SUNSHINE ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE
FREEZING ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WILL HELP IN THE
MELTING OF THE WINTER PRECIPITATION. THE GREATEST MELTING TODAY
WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 40 DEGREES AND THE LEAST AMOUNT OF
WINTER PRECIPITATION OCCURRED.

REFREEZING AND BLACK ICE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS LOW TEMPERATURES
DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN.

$$

JCL


Hazardous Weather Outlook


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1254 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071115-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1254 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE A LIMITED FIRE WEATHER DANGER
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET AND DRY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-071100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MANY ROADS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THIS MORNING...AS ANY MELTING THAT
OCCURRED THURSDAY REFROZE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM
ABOVE FREEZING...BUT ALL AREAS WILL FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT. EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE USED BY MOTORISTS DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF BLACK ICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

$$

58


Hydrologic Outlook


HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-023-025-029-031-039-041-043-045-049-05
1-053-055-059-063-065-067-069-071-079-083-085-089-095-097-
099-101-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-1
47-149-070600-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS A
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA WHICH IS WHOLLY LOCATED WITHIN THE STATE OF
ARKANSAS. IT ENCOMPASSES AN AREA WHICH INCLUDES THE WHITE RIVER AND
TRIBUTARIES FROM BULL SHOALS DAM DOWNSTREAM...THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND
TRIBUTARIES FROM DARDANELLE DOWNSTREAM...AND THE OUACHITA
RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES FROM THE HEADWATERS TO THE UPPER BOUNDARY OF
THE FELSENTHAL NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE. ALONG WITH THE MAIN STEM OF
THESE RIVERS...IT ALSO INCLUDES TRIBUTARIES WITH FORECAST LOCATIONS
ON THE CACHE...BLACK...SPRING...SALINE...PETIT JEAN...FOURCHE
LAFAVE...LITTLE MISSOURI...BUFFALO...LITTLE RED...AND ELEVEN POINT
RIVERS.

EXISTING CONDITIONS...

RAINFALL - PRECIPITATION TOTALS DURING THE LAST 90 DAYS FOR ARKANSAS
HAVE BEEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. WIDESPREAD AREAS IN
NORTHWESTERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS ARE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. ONLY IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE DO 90-DAY TOTALS APPROACH
OR EXCEED THE AVERAGE.

SNOWPACK - SNOWPACK ESTIMATES FROM THE NATIONAL OPERATIONS
HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC) INDICATE A LIGHT TO MEDIUM
SNOWPACK IN ARKANSAS. DENSEST SNOWPACK RESIDES IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WHITE RIVER BASIN. ALTHOUGH THIS
SNOWMELT WILL LIKELY PROLONG MINOR FLOODING TO THIS AREA IN THE
SHORT TERM IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT WITH
REGARD TO SPRING FLOODING.

SOIL MOISTURE - SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS IN ARKANSAS ARE GENERALLY
NEAR NORMAL...WITH ESTIMATES BETWEEN THE 30TH AND 70TH PERCENTILE.
WITH THE CURRENT SNOWPACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...MELTING WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE THE GROUND WATER SUPPLY. IF HEAVY RAIN WAS TO OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...RUNOFF WOULD BE ELEVATED.

RIVER FLOWS AND RESERVOIRS - STREAMFLOWS WERE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
THIS WINTER UNTIL THIS LAST HEAVY RAIN/SNOW EVENT WHICH TEMPORARILY
BROUGHT STREAMFLOWS UP INTO THE 76TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE. THIS EARLY
SPRING WINTER EVENT BROUGHT MINOR FLOODING TO THE
BLACK...WHITE...CACHE...AND OUACHITA RIVERS WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO
MID MARCH. CORPS OF ENGINEERS PROJECTS IN ARKANSAS ARE AT LEVELS
APPROXIMATING DESIGN CONDITIONS WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD
CONTROL CAPACITY AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.

WHITE RIVER BASIN...

PRECIPITATION AND SNOW MELT HAS LED TO MINOR RISES ALONG RIVERS IN
THE BLACK AND WHITE RIVER BASINS. OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS
NORMAL BUT WITH RECENT PRECIPITATION MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 WEEKS ON THE BLACK...LOWER WHITE RIVER
AND CACHE RIVERS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE
BLACK AND WHITE BASINS. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE
IS GIVEN BELOW.

                                            2/18   3/4
                     BULL SHOALS RES. AR    100%  100%
                         NORFORK RES. AR    100%  100%
                    GREERS FERRY RES. AR    100%  100%


ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN...

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD CONDITIONS IN WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THIS SPRING. FLOODING IN WESTERN ARKANSAS USUALLY OCCURS IN
RESPONSE TO SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION EVENTS. HOWEVER...THE ARKANSAS
RIVER MAY FLOOD IN RESPONSE TO MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM CONDITIONS.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO INDICATIONS OF EXTREME HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS
TO ALTER THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OF THE AREA.

CORPS OF ENGINEERS PROJECTS ARE AT LEVELS APPROXIMATING DESIGN
CONDITIONS. THEY HAVE APPROXIMATELY 99 PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD
CONTROL CAPACITY AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. STREAMFLOWS ALONG THE
ARKANSAS RIVER ARE NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS...WITH THE TRIBUTARIES ABOVE AVERAGE ON ACCOUNT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK. OBSERVED FLOW ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS
RIVER IS CURRENTLY NEAR 25000 CFS WHICH IS 33% OF NORMAL COMPARED TO
THE LONG TERM AVERAGE OF 76000 CFS FOR EARLY MARCH.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS SEASONAL OUTLOOK (MAR-APR-MAY) CALLS
FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL...BELOW-NORMAL...AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-MEDIAN...BELOW-MEDIAN...AND NEAR-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR OF FEBRUARY 24TH 2015 INDICATES
NORTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS ARE EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY
DRY (D0) CONDITIONS BUT CALLS FOR NO INTENSIFICATION OF DROUGHT
CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT THREE MONTHS.

OUACHITA RIVER BASIN...

STREAMFLOWS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL IN ARKANSAS. SOIL MOISTURE
CONTENT IS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL AND DUE TO RECENT SNOW AND
RAINFALL MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST AND/OR OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER OUACHITA. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF
MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                             3/4
OUACHITA RIVER                 CAMDEN AR    282%
OUACHITA RIVER                 MONROE LA    143%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE
OUACHITA BASIN. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE RESERVOIR FLOOD CONTROL
STORAGE IS GIVEN BELOW.


                                            3/4
                        LAKE OUACHITA AR    100%
                          DEGRAY RES. AR    100%
                         LAKE GREESON AR    100%

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...

THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES SLIGHT CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...AND
NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER ARKANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE OHIO AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH.

THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL...ABOVE
NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS REGION. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER ARKANSAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

CONCLUSION...

THROUGH MID MARCH MINOR FLOODING WILL PERSIST AS THE SNOWPACKS
ACROSS THE STATE MELTS. THE SATURATED SOILS FROM THE LINGERING
SNOWMELT WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RUNOFF WITH ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THIS SHOULD
KEEP STREAMFLOW SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
SPRING.

BY APRIL/MAY...EXPECT THE NORMAL PERIODS OF HIGHLY CONVECTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER AND ASSOCIATED HIGH QUANTITIES OF RAINFALL OCCURRING
PERIODICALLY IN A SHORT PERIOD AND OVER SMALLER WATERSHEDS. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE NO STRONG INDICATORS THAT SUGGEST AN OVERLY WET OR
SEVERELY DRY SPRING...ANY LOCALIZED HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL CAN
CREATE FLASH FLOODING AT ANY TIME. THIS SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK DEFINES LONG TERM RIVER FLOODING...AND DOES NOT ASSESS THE
RISK OF SHORT TERM FLOODING.

THE SPRING POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS A ROUTINE PRODUCT. SHOULD EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL BECOME PART OF THE FORECAST AT ANY OTHER TIME OF THE
YEAR...A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED WITH EVENT SPECIFIC
INFORMATION. ALSO LOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLOOD WATCHES.
IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO REMAIN SITUATIONALLY AWARE.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGE INFORMATION...FORECAST...AND WARNINGS
PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK

RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST DATA CAN BE OBTAINED BY SELECTING THE
RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK UNDER THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SECTION.

$$

61

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Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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