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Flood Warning


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
812 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Mississippi...

  Mississippi River At Natchez affecting Concordia...Adams and
  Wilkinson Counties/Parishes


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don`t
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for
the Mississippi River.


The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.

&&

LAC029-MSC001-157-070712-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-150507T1500Z/
/NTZM6.1.ER.150424T0300Z.150501T1500Z.150507T0000Z.NO/
812 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Mississippi River At Natchez
* until Thursday morning.
* At  7:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 48.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 48.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling and will fall below
  flood stage by tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 48.0 feet...Carthage Point Road becomes impassable.
* Impact...At 47.0 feet...Water begins to enter the former Belwood
  Golf Course and Carthage Point Road area south of Natchez.
* Impact...At 45.0 feet...Water under some buildings around Fort
  Adams, Mississippi.

&&

              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Wed   Thu   Fri Crest Time  Date

Lower Mississippi River
Natchez        48  48.8 Tue 07 PM  48.4  47.7  46.5     Falling


&&


LAT...LON 3101 9170 3130 9167 3193 9129 3187 9114
      3130 9147 3100 9154



$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
812 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...

  Mississippi River At Red River Landing affecting East Baton
  Rouge...Pointe Coupee and West Feliciana Parishes

  Mississippi River At Baton Rouge affecting East Baton Rouge and
  West Baton Rouge Parishes

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn
around and don`t drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC033-077-125-070712-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/RRLL1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
812 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Mississippi River At Red River Landing.
* until further notice.
* At  7:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 52.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 48.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 49.2 feet
  by Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 51.0 feet...All river islands along the reach from Red
  River Landing to Baton Rouge will be inundated. Recreational camps
  and river bottom farm land will be under water.
* Impact...At 48.0 feet...Access roads will be inundated and
  evacuation of all river islands must be complete. Protection of
  people and property in the river bottom land on the river side of
  the levees must be complete.

&&

LAT...LON 3103 9153 3102 9170 3071 9159 3074 9137

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1024 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

ARC003-139-061524-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/FELA4.1.ER.150312T1917Z.150331T0800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1024 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Ouachita River At Felsenthal, Arkansas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 900 AM Tuesday the pool stage was 74.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 70 feet.
* Forecast...Expect little change through Wednesday.
* Impact...at 75.0 feet...Flooding in the Felsenthal National Wildlife
  Refuge will continue for at least another ten days.

&&

LAT...LON 3300 9210 3311 9217 3318 9212 3307 9211 3300 9205

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1021 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

ARC027-LAC119-061521-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0075.000000T0000Z-150506T1800Z/
/SPHL1.1.ER.150413T0645Z.150429T1415Z.150506T0000Z.NO/
1021 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Bayou Dorcheat Near Springhill, Louisiana.
* until Wednesday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 1000 AM Tuesday the stage was 11.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11 feet.
* Forecast...The bayou will continue to fall to below flood stage by
  this Tuesday evening.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Expect minor lowland flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 9339 3300 9335 3282 9332 3282 9338 3300 9343

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1021 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

LAC015-119-061521-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LBBL1.1.ER.150309T0045Z.150329T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1021 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Bodcau Bayou At Bayou Bodcau Lake.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 800 AM Tuesday the pool stage was 179.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 172 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 179.5 feet by
  Saturday morning then begin falling.

&&

LAT...LON 3282 9351 3289 9344 3272 9346 3270 9351 3277 9351

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1013 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...From the National Weather Service in Little Rock...the Flood
Warning continues for the following river in Arkansas...

  Ouachita River At Thatcher L&D affecting Bradley...Calhoun and
  Union Counties


River forecasts are based on current conditions and rainfall
forecasted to occur over the next 12 hours. During periods of
flooding...Evening forecasts are reissued with updated rainfall
forecasts.

Observed and forecasted stage data plots are available on our
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service web page at...
www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk
Under the Current Conditions section...Select River and Lakes AHPS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Remember to Turn Around...Don`t Drown
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Everyone with property or other interest along streams and rivers
should remain alert to changing weather forecast. Should conditions
change...Look for river forecast or Flood Warnings for use in

&&

ARC011-013-139-060613-
/O.EXT.KLZK.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-150510T1200Z/
/CALA4.2.ER.150226T2312Z.150320T2330Z.150509T0600Z.NO/
1013 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Sunday morning...The Flood Warning
continues for
  The Ouachita River At Thatcher L&D.
* until Sunday morning...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 7:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 83.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 79.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by
  this weekend.
* Impacts at 83.0 feet...Access to oil and gas rigs and to timber is
  flooded. Calhoun County Road 131 is completely under water leading
  to old Lock 8 river access.


&&


             Fld     Observed                 Forecast 7 AM
Location     Stg   Stg  Day Time    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun

Ouachita River
  Thatcher L  79  83.5 Tue 07 AM   82.5   81.3   80.0   78.6   77.3


&&


LAT...LON 3311 9223 3323 9236 3329 9261 3338 9247
 3333 9226 3322 9212



$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
940 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

TXC001-073-225-061439-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NCST2.1.ER.150406T2100Z.150430T0245Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
940 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Neches, Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 830 AM Tuesday the stage was 14.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 14.3 feet
  by Wednesday morning.
* Impact...at 14.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding.  Move livestock and
  equipment to higher ground away from the river.

&&

LAT...LON 3205 9551 3167 9524 3166 9537 3180 9544 3188 9548

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
940 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

TXC001-073-225-455-061439-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0077.000000T0000Z-150510T0600Z/
/ATOT2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.150430T1200Z.150508T1800Z.NO/
940 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Alto, Texas.
* until late Saturday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 700 AM Tuesday the stage was 16.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 16 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by
  Friday early afternoon.
* Impact...at 16.0 feet...Boat ramps and picnic areas near the river
  will begin to flood. Ranchers should move cattle and equipment near
  the river to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3167 9524 3152 9504 3138 9492 3133 9500 3166 9537

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
940 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

TXC005-225-373-455-457-061439-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0078.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DIBT2.1.ER.150420T2045Z.150502T1845Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
940 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Diboll, Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 915 AM Tuesday the stage was 14.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 14.0 feet
  by Wednesday morning.
* Impact...at 16.0 feet...Lowland flooding will slowly decrease for
  the next several days.

&&

LAT...LON 3138 9492 3107 9455 3103 9459 3111 9485 3136 9500

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
940 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

TXC005-073-347-061440-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0080.000000T0000Z-150510T0600Z/
/LUFT2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.150430T1200Z.150508T1800Z.NO/
940 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Angelina River Near Lufkin, Texas.
* until late Saturday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 700 AM Tuesday the stage was 11.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 10 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by
  Friday early afternoon.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 9462 3145 9474 3148 9482 3150 9482 3146 9466

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
840 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas...

  Sabine River Near Deweyville
  Neches River Near Town Bluff

TXC241-457-060339-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/TBFT2.1.ER.150312T0200Z.150322T1201Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
840 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Neches River Near Town Bluff.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 67.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 64.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will remain near 67.8 feet.
* Impact...At stages near 65.0 feet...Areas around Barlow Lake and
  Brushy Lake begin to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3096 9432 3079 9420 3053 9418 3053 9399 3099 9415

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
840 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas...

  Sabine River Near Deweyville
  Neches River Near Town Bluff

LAC011-019-TXC351-361-060340-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DWYT2.1.ER.150317T1230Z.150429T0830Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
840 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sabine River Near Deweyville.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:45 AM Tuesday the stage was 24.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will remain near 24.1 feet.
* Impact...At stages near 24.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding will
  occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3061 9376 3031 9381 3008 9378 3005 9367
      3044 9364 3057 9363

$$


Hazardous Weather Outlook


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
745 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-061000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
745 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
WESTERN PARTS OF ARKANSAS. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM MAY BE
SEEN...BUT COVERAGE WOULD BE VERY LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
AND AT TIMES BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. BETTER CHANCES
OF CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND. ALSO...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS ON MONDAY. THE THREAT OF ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN LOW AND ISOLATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

$$

56/59

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
500 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-061400-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
500 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FOR THE OUTER OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH
FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE ANTICIPATED.
ACROSS THE OPEN INNER COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS CHANDELEUR AND
BRETON SOUNDS...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
458 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-062200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
458 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAINLY
BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS DECREASED THROUGH TONIGHT
DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.

A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD
PRODUCE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLARS AND WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY
INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINFALL.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
MAINLY WEST OF ENID...LAWTON AND WICHITA FALLS. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS... AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE CONCERNS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON THURSDAY... THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS MAINLY CONFINED TO A SMALL
AREA OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

WHAT HAPPENS EACH DAY THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE
DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS THE DAY BEFORE SO CHECK THE FORECAST
OFTEN FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

$$

MBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
457 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM NOWATA TO MCALESTER
        ONSET...LATE EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM NOWATA TO MCALESTER.
ONSET...LATE EVENING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER... THE MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS... SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD
OF THIS ACTIVITY... WHICH WILL REDUCE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA FROM
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS WEST AND NORTH OF
THE REGION... HOWEVER... THERE WILL REMAIN AT LEAST A LIMITED RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY. THE MAIN
UPPER LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND... WHICH
MAY INCREASE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS WINDS ALOFT
STRENGTHEN. ADDITIONALLY... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
LIKELY... RAISING FLOODING CONCERNS.


WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
330 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-062030-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
330 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS WEST OF A MADISONVILLE TO TO
BELLVILLE TO COLUMBUS LINE COULD BECOME STRONG WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER EPISODE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
231 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-061200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
231 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT NORTH TEXAS EVERY
DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT ALL AREAS WILL SEE
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT BETTER SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL
OCCUR ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN THREATS WITH
ANY STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1226 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-061730-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-
MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-
PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
1226 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM PRESCOTT ARKANSAS TO MANY
LOUISIANA. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

19


Short Term Forecast


SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
733 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-060245-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
733 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.NOW... AT 7:30 PM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ADVANCING NORTHWARD AT 30 MPH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. MOST OF THE
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75.

THROUGH 9:30 PM... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AVERAGE
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ARE
ANTICIPATED... MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 AND SOUTH OF I 40. THE
STRONGEST SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER... MAY PRODUCE A TENTH TO
OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

$$

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
653 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

ARZ050-059-LAZ001-002-010-011-017>020-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-060200-
SEVIER-LITTLE RIVER-CADDO-BOSSIER-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-SABINE-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-
MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-
PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...ASHDOWN...SHREVEPORT...
BOSSIER CITY...MANSFIELD...STONEWALL...LOGANSPORT...COUSHATTA...
MARTIN...MANY...ZWOLLE...PLEASANT HILL...NATCHITOCHES...
WINNFIELD...COLFAX...MONTGOMERY...DRY PRONG...IDABEL...
BROKEN BOW...CLARKSVILLE...BOGATA...TEXARKANA...MOUNT VERNON...
MOUNT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...LONE STAR...NAPLES...
OMAHA...ATLANTA...LINDEN...HUGHES SPRINGS...QUEEN CITY...
MINEOLA...WINNSBORO...QUITMAN...HAWKINS...GILMER...BIG SANDY...
JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...JACKSONVILLE...RUSK...
HENDERSON...CARTHAGE...NACOGDOCHES...CENTER...LUFKIN...
SAN AUGUSTINE...HEMPHILL...PINELAND
653 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.NOW...
A 30 MILE WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT NORTH ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO MCCURTAIN
COUNTY OKLAHOMA...AND POSSIBLY WESTERN LITTLE RIVER AND SEVIER
COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE CITIES OF
DEKALB TEXAS...IDABEL AND BROKEN BOW OKLAHOMA DURING THE NEXT
HOUR...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH
AMOUNTS OF UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND WESTCENTRAL LOUISIANA...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING...BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

$$

15

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE