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Hazardous Weather Outlook


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
745 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-161100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
745 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
MAINLY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS. A STRONG STORM TO TWO MAY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS.  BY WEDNESDAY...A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

$$

MBS/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
451 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
451 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...VERY LIMITED.
AREA...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE
INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A STRONG CELL OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
A LIMITED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS.

A MORE DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. TOPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTERACTING WITH THIS
SYSTEM COULD CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
449 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-161115-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
449 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-160915-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
413 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 12. ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES ON TUESDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1135 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-161200-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1135 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE REGION TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
SURFACE FRONT ENTER THE AREA. HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A WEAK FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...
AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN DURING THE WEEKEND...A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND MAY BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
346 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-
073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-160900-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
346 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TODAY AND
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. STORMS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL MOVE INLAND AS THE
FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING... GUSTY WINDS... AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
STORMS WILL BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE TOMORROW WITH THE CONTINUING
THREAT OF LIGHTNING... WINDS... AND HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

$$


Short Term Forecast


SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
747 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-160215-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
747 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.NOW...

AT 7:47 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS DETECTED A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG
A COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR PAWNEE TO FAIRLAND. SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS WERE ALSO ONGOING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALL OF
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AT AROUND 25 MPH.

THROUGH 9:15 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH WITH THE FRONT...AFFECTING LOCATIONS
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF A MARAMEC TO GROVE LINE. OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR ACROSS THESE AREAS.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF A BLANCO TO BIG CEDAR LINE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.

$$

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
736 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-160300-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
736 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
EAST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35...PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER EVENING HOURS.
ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN A TRACE
AND A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN
BE EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.


$$

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
732 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

ARZ050-051-059>061-070-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136-137-
149-150-152-165-160245-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-MCCURTAIN-
RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-
MARION-SMITH-GREGG-CHEROKEE-RUSK-NACOGDOCHES-ANGELINA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...
MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...
GILMER...JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...RUSK...HENDERSON...
NACOGDOCHES...LUFKIN
732 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.NOW...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I30
CORRIDOR...AND ISOLATED AREAS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. MOVEMENT IS TO
THE EAST.

$$
25

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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