Tactical Decision Aids
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154 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014 //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z..

* RAIN WITH A PERIOD OF THUNDER AND POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITY BETWEEN 19Z-21Z...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVE

* EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHWEST WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN LIKELY BECOMING SOUTHEAST OR EAST AFTERWARD /NEAR 20Z/ AND POTENTIALLY BEING AROUND 10 KT

* POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS AND/OR VISIBILITY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING

* LAKE BREEZE TURNING WINDS EASTERLY AROUND OR POSSIBLY ABOVE 10 KT SUNDAY

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z..

AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH A SLOW WANING TREND...ESPECIALLY IN PART OF THE SEGMENT JUST UPSTREAM OF ORD AND MDW. WHILE THAT IS THE CASE...INCREASED CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE OUTFLOW AND THE LAKE BREEZE IN UNCAPPED AIR WILL LIKELY SPARK MORE STORMS. THIS ALSO COULD EXTEND THE TSRA TIMING

SO FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THE TSRA STILL INDICATED IN THE CHICAGOLAND TAFS. STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND THIS WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN THE CONTINUED MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS

THE WIND DIRECTION WILL LIKELY TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE STORMS PASS...AS ALL OBSERVATIONS SITES HAVE INDICATED THAT UPSTREAM AND RADAR SHOW WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW. THE SPEED OF THE OUTFLOW HAS SLOWED SOME...SO THE DEGREE OF GUSTS AT CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 30 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION BEHIND THE INITIAL PUSH OF STORMS MAY BECOME VARIABLE...BUT IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN EAST OR SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR POST-THUNDERSTORM WINDS AT ORD

THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS AIDED BY RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SET THE STAGE ONCE AGAIN FOR FOG AND LOW CIGS TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE OF THIS IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME

A LAKE BREEZE LOOKS LIKELY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT WILL PROBABLY REACH BOTH ORD AND MDW

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z..

* HIGH IN THUNDER OCCURRING. MEDIUM IN DURATION. LOW IN SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THIS EVE

* LOW IN WIND DIRECTION BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z...MEDIUM IN WIND CONDITIONS OTHERWISE...INCLUDING LAKE BREEZE TIMING ON SUNDAY

* MEDIUM IN SOME FORM OF IFR RESTRICTION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOW ON WHETHER FOG AND/OR CIG

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z..

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR

FRIDAY...VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA

MTF
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