Tactical Decision Aids
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1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014 //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z..

* OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON

* MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY

BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z..

A COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS DOWNSTATE IL AND SOUTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH BROAD AREA OF STRATUS BEHIND WHICH HAS BEGUN TO OVERTURN IN SOME AREAS ALLOWING SKIES TO SCATTER. THE CHICAGO TERMINALS REMAIN SOCKED IN UNDER MVFR STRATUS HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE FROM THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SPRINKLES EXPECTED TO KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE CHICAGO TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH THE DAY...FROM N/NNE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO NORTHEAST MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RFD IS EXPECTED TO SEE SKIES SCATTER OUT FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY SPREAD BACK OVERHEAD TONIGHT

BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z..

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL WIND DIRECTION TRENDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WINDS STAYING NEAR 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE IN END TIME FOR MVFR WEDNESDAY

BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z..

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE

SOUTHEAST WINDS

THURSDAY...TSRA AND MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS

FRIDAY...LOW CHANCE SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY. GUSTY WEST WINDS

SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS

SUNDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS

MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS

MDB
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