Tactical Decision Aids
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651 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014 //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z..

* EASTERLY WINDS 7-9 KT DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH FROPA...LIKELY AT 10 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON

* MVFR STRATUS POST FROPA THURSDAY MORNING

RODRIGUEZ //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z..

WITH LAKE BREEZE PASSAGE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 7-9 KT WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. CURRENT SPEEDS ARE AT THE HIGHEST WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MOST OF TONIGHT WILL REMAIN QUIET AS FRONT TO THE NORTH DROPS SOUTH TOWARDS THE TERMINALS. TIMING OF THIS FRONT DOES APPEAR AS IF IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY SOONER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...SO HAVE PUSHED UP TIMING OF FROPA. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS/TRENDS THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT

THERE ARE CURRENTLY MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND DO EXPECT THESE TO PUSH DOWN THE LAKE WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT ALTHOUGH...GUIDANCE DOES VARY WITH THE EXTENT OF THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH. GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE LOWER CLOUDS TO THE NORTHWEST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY VEERS BUT WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY PUSH...CANT RULE OUT THESE LOWER CLOUDS STILL REACHING THE TERMINALS. SO HAVE MAINTAINED MVFR CEILINGS IN THE TAFS...BUT DID MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO HEIGHT/DURATION. DONT THINK CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ALL DAY...WITH SKIES CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON

RODRIGUEZ //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z..

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION

* LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CEILINGS/TIMING/DURATION

RODRIGUEZ //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z..

FRIDAY...VFR

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS

SUNDAY...VFR

MONDAY...VFR

TUESDAY...VFR

RODRIGUEZ
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